Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank must be willing to think beyond the complex mathematical simulations used for economic forecasts. “Intellectual rigor must be combined with flexibility and agility,” he said at a conference marking the 100th anniversary of the Division of Research and Statistics.
“Our economy is flexible and dynamic and sometimes subject to unpredictable shocks, such as a global financial crisis or a pandemic. You have to think outside the models.”
The Fed chairman did not comment on the monetary outlook in his remarks. The next Fed meeting is in December (12th to 13th) and until then data on retail, labor market and inflation will be released.
Markets are pricing in almost no chance of a new interest rate increase and expect the current rate level to remain unchanged (5.25% to 5.5%), which marks the peak of the tightening cycle.