The major U.S. index futures are currently pointing to a roughly flat open on Tuesday, with stocks likely to experience choppy trading after moving mostly higher over the course of the previous session.
A lack of major U.S. economic data may keep traders on the sidelines ahead of key events later this week that could impact the outlook for interest rates.
Traders are likely to analyze the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest monetary policy meeting, which are due to be released on Wednesday, for additional clues about the likelihood of a rate cut next month.
Later in the week, remarks by Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other Fed officials at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium are also likely to attract attention.
According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, there is a 73.5 percent of a quarter point rate cut next month and a 26.5 percent chance of a half point rate cut.
“September is being tipped as the month for that first Fed cut after inflation finally dropped below 3%,” said Danni Hewson, AJ Bell head of financial analysis. “How far Jay Powell and the FOMC will go, how deep that first cut will be, and whether or not it could be the only one delivered this year are now the questions on investors’ lips.”
She added, “Nerves that the Fed had been too slow have been somewhat allayed, but every word spoken at this week’s Jackson Hole Symposium will still be scrutinized.”
However, it is worth noting stocks got off to a lackluster start on Monday before upward momentum propelled the markets to another strong day.
Among individual stocks, shares of Lowe’s (NYSE:LOW) are likely to be in focus after the home improvement retailer reported better than expected fiscal second quarter earnings but cut its full-year outlook due to “lower-than-expected DIY sales and a pressured macroeconomic environment.”
Stocks moved mostly higher over the course of the trading session on Monday, adding to the strong gains posted last week. The major averages showed a lack of direction early in the session but climbed firmly into positive territory as the day progressed.
The major averages surged going into the final hour of trading, with the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 closing just shy of their highs of the session. The Nasdaq shot up 245.05 points or 1.3 percent to 17,876.77, the S&P 500 jumped 54.00 points or 1.0 percent to 5,608.26 and the Dow climbed 236.77 points or 0.6 percent to 40,896.53.
The strength that emerged on Wall Street came as stocks continued to benefit from recent upward momentum, with the major averages extending the upward trend seen over the past several sessions.
The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 closed higher for the eight consecutive session and have more than offset the steep drop seen early this month.
The buying interest also came as recent data has eased concerns about the economic outlook while also increasing confidence the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month.
In U.S. economic news, the Conference Board released a report showing its reading on leading U.S. economic indicators fell by much more than expected in the month of July.
The Conference Board said its leading economic index slid by 0.6 percent in July after dipping by 0.2 percent in June. Economists had expected the index to decrease by 0.3 percent.
Meanwhile, the report said the index fell by 2.1 percent over the six-month period ending in July 2024, a smaller rate of decline than the 3.1 percent slump over the six-month period between July 2023 and January 2024.
“The LEI continues to fall on a month-over-month basis, but the six-month annual growth rate no longer signals recession ahead,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board.
Biotechnology stocks moved sharply higher over the course of the session, with the NYSE Arca Biotechnology Index surging by 2.2 percent to its best closing level in almost three years.
Significant strength was also visible among gold stocks, as reflected by the 2.1 percent jump by the NYSE Arca Gold Index. The index reached a two-year closing high amid a modest increase by the price of the precious metal.
Semiconductor stocks also turned in a strong performance on the day, driving the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up by 1.9 percent.
Housing, natural gas and airline stocks also saw notable strength, moving higher along with most of the other major sectors.