U.S. index futures are largely flat in pre-market trading this Monday, after a strong week on Wall Street, driven by the Federal Reserve’s 50 basis point interest rate cut. The Dow hit a record high above 42,000 points, with investors eyeing upcoming economic data and Fed speeches this week.
At 5:23 AM, Dow Jones futures (DOWI:DJI) rose 6 points or 0.01%. S&P 500 futures gained 0.08%, and Nasdaq-100 futures advanced 0.15%. The 10-year Treasury yield stood at 3.745%.
In commodities, oil prices rose on concerns about Middle Eastern conflict potentially disrupting supply. Hezbollah and Israel exchanged fire on Sunday following intense bombings. Hezbollah launched rockets at northern Israel, while communication devices linked to the group were reportedly destroyed by Israel, which has not confirmed responsibility. Additionally, the recent U.S. interest rate cuts are fueling expectations of higher demand.
West Texas Intermediate crude for November rose 0.17% to $71.12 per barrel, while Brent for November increased 0.07% to $74.54 per barrel.
Gold (PM:XAUUSD) is down -0.2% at $2,617.90, after hitting a record high of $2,631.17 per ounce, spurred by the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts. Despite strong performance, analysts warned of potential overbought signals in the market.
On today’s U.S. economic agenda, at 8:00 AM, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will speak. At 09:45 AM, preliminary September PMIs will be released: the services PMI is expected at 55.4, and the manufacturing PMI at 48.4. At 10:15 AM, Chicago Fed’s Austan Goolsbee will speak, followed by Minneapolis Fed’s Neel Kashkari at 1:00 PM.
In Asia-Pacific, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.69%, closing at 8,152.9. In South Korea, the Kospi rose 0.33%, and the Kosdaq 0.91%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dipped 0.2% in the final hour of trading, while China’s CSI 300 rose 0.37%. Taiwan’s index closed up 0.57%.
In India, economic activity grew at its slowest pace in 2024, with declines in the services and manufacturing sectors, according to an HSBC survey. The manufacturing PMI dropped to 56.7 (from 57.5), and services PMI to 58.9 (from 60.9). The composite PMI fell to 59.3 (from 60.7), still indicating expansion. Nonetheless, the central bank forecasts robust growth above 7% by March 2025.
In China, the youth unemployment rate reached 18.8% in August, exceeding the July record. Beijing adjusted the methodology to exclude students, but the rate remains 3.5 times higher than the general urban unemployment rate of 5.3%. The government is trying to ease the situation with subsidies and hiring incentives.
Despite calls for rate cuts, the People’s Bank of China kept its key rates unchanged. To support banking liquidity, it injected 234.6 billion yuan into the system and reduced the 14-day reverse repo rate to 1.85%, below the 1.95% set in February.
According to Bloomberg, China plans a rare economic briefing by three financial regulators aimed at boosting growth. Authorities seek to bolster confidence and demand amid weak economic data and concerns about meeting the annual growth target of 5%.
Separately, the U.S. is considering banning the import and sale of Chinese cars equipped with communication software or hardware and autonomous driving systems.
Additionally, Morgan Stanley advised investors to reassess their preference for Chinese stocks listed on the mainland versus those traded abroad, citing reduced purchases by state funds and expectations of yuan depreciation. The bank noted a diminishing impetus for national stock selection and forecasted downward revisions to earnings estimates for A-shares.
In Hong Kong, real estate market sales fell to their lowest level in two months, with a 53% drop in deals in key housing estates, even after local banks cut interest rates. Economic pressure and uncertainty continue to deter buyers, especially from mainland China.
In Australia, the government is facing resistance to reform the central bank’s board, with the Greens demanding immediate rate cuts in exchange for support. Treasurer Jim Chalmers proposed a dual board, focusing on monetary policy and governance, but the deadlock persists after the Liberal-National coalition withdrew its support.
The Reserve Bank of Australia began its policy meeting, with expectations to keep interest rates at 4.35%. Analysts await signs of a possible shift in the bank’s hawkish stance, particularly after the Fed’s 50 basis point rate cut, kicking off a loosening cycle.
In Japan, markets were closed Monday due to a holiday. The Bank of Japan kept its interest rate at 0.25% last Friday.
In Singapore, headline and core inflation rose more than expected in August, hitting 2.2% and 2.7%, respectively, year-on-year. The overall CPI exceeded the forecast of 2.15% but was lower than July’s 2.4%, while core CPI surpassed expectations of 2.6%.
European markets opened largely flat on Monday, with the Stoxx 600 index edging slightly higher. However, the market cooled after PMI data in Germany and France showed further declines in business activity, suggesting a technical recession in Germany.
In France, the PMI fell to 47.4, below the forecast of 50.6 and August’s 53.1, marking an eight-month low. In Germany, the index dropped to 47.2, lower than August’s 48.4, hitting a seven-month low. The eurozone’s private sector economy contracted, with the PMI falling to 48.9 in September, while analysts had expected the figure to only marginally decrease to 50.5. The ECB may reconsider rate cuts in light of the economic slowdown.
Among stocks, Commerzbank (TG:CBK) is down 3% after the German government said it would not sell more shares, signaling opposition to a takeover. Hugo Boss (TG:BOSS) fell 4.8% after a downgrade by Bank of America, citing weak Chinese demand. Rightmove (LSE:RMV) rose 2.2% after rejecting a new acquisition offer.
U.S. stocks fell on Friday but recovered some losses to close mixed. The Dow gained 0.09%, reaching a new record. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 fell 0.36% and 0.19%, respectively. Despite the mixed performance, the indices posted strong weekly gains.
Last week, the Dow rose 1.6%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 advanced 1.5% and 1.4%. The transportation sector fell due to FedEx (NYSE:FDX) shares, which dropped 15.2% in reaction to its quarterly performance. Gold and hardware stocks rose. Traders await new catalysts following the Fed’s rate cut.
On the quarterly earnings front, AAR Corp (NYSE:AIR) and Red Cat Holdings (NASDAQ:RCAT) will report their numbers after the market close.