U.S. index futures rose in Thursday’s pre-market session following Donald Trump’s victory, which sent the Dow Jones up over 1,500 points yesterday. Investors are watching for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, with CME Group’s Fed Watch tool showing a 100% probability of a rate cut. Corporate earnings, jobless claims data, and wholesale inventories will also be closely monitored today.
As of 5:26 AM ET, Dow Jones futures (DOWI:DJI) were up 72 points, or 0.16%. S&P 500 futures gained 0.16%, while Nasdaq-100 futures rose 0.21%. The 10-year Treasury yield was at 4.429%.
In commodities, West Texas Intermediate crude for December fell 0.92% to $71.03 per barrel, and Brent for January dropped 0.72% to $74.38 per barrel.
Oil prices declined due to a looming hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, a stronger dollar, and lower Chinese imports. Trump’s election raised concerns about restrictions on Iranian and Venezuelan oil, while the hurricane disrupted 17% of U.S. Gulf production. Fluctuations were also influenced by Middle East tensions and OPEC+ policy.
China’s October oil imports dropped to 44.7 million tons, signaling weak demand. This figure was 2% lower than in September and 9% down from last year.
Russell Hardy, CEO of Vitol, forecasts global oil prices between $70 and $80 per barrel by 2025. He noted that geopolitical uncertainty, including potential sanctions on Iran under Trump’s presidency, will impact supply. Citigroup also indicated that new trade tariffs on China could harm growth.
In today’s U.S. economic agenda, initial jobless claims for the week ending November 2 are due at 8:30 AM ET, with a forecast of 220,000, up from the previous 216,000. Preliminary Q3 productivity is expected to remain at 2.5%.
At 10 AM ET, September’s wholesale inventory report is expected to show a 0.1% drop, following a 0.1% increase the prior month. At 2:00 PM, the FOMC will announce its rate decision, followed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference at 2:30 PM. Finally, at 3:00 PM, September consumer credit data is anticipated, with an expected increase to $14.0 billion from $8.9 billion.
In Asia-Pacific markets, China’s CSI 300 rose 3.02%, hitting a one-month high as investors await further stimulus measures following the legislature meeting. Despite concerns over potential trade tensions under Trump’s presidency, stocks rebounded, supported by positive export data.
Chinese exports surged 12.7% in October, the largest increase in over two years, as factories ramped up production ahead of new U.S. tariffs under Trump. However, imports fell 2.3%, reflecting weak domestic demand, while the trade surplus rose to $95.27 billion.
Japan’s Topix gained 1% on robust corporate earnings and share buybacks, with Toray Industries and Taisei Corp. rising over 12%. However, the Nikkei 225 fell 0.43% due to concerns over Trump’s tighter trade policies affecting semiconductor stocks.
South Korea’s Kospi rose marginally, while the Kosdaq fell 1.32%. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.33%.
European markets rose this morning, boosted by Trump’s victory and political instability in Germany. Most sectors were up except for healthcare, retail, industrials, travel, leisure, and telecoms, while major European companies’ earnings were released. Investors are focused on the Fed’s and Bank of England’s monetary policy decisions, with expected rate cuts.
In Germany, exports and industrial production dropped more than expected in September, down 1.7% and 2.5%, respectively, highlighting economic weaknesses. Additionally, Chancellor Olaf Scholz dismissed Finance Minister Christian Lindner, ending the three-party coalition and calling for a confidence vote in Parliament on January 15.
The German 10-year bond yield surpassed its equivalent swap rate for the first time, indicating increased debt sales. This inversion, at its lowest since 2007, suggests expectations of more debt in the market.
Commerzbank strategist Hauke Siemssen predicts that Lindner’s departure, who opposed debt cap flexibility, has fueled market expectations for even greater debt issuance.
In Norway, the Norges Bank held its rate at 4.5%, the highest since 2008, citing a weak krone and high trade costs. This contrasts with the Riksbank’s rate cut in Sweden, reflecting a conservative stance as other G10 countries ease policies.
In corporate highlights, John Wood Group (LSE:WG.) shares fell 43.8% after reporting lower adjusted profits and weak Q3 revenue growth due to disappointing project performance. Revenue was nearly $1.49 billion, with an 8% decline in order book year-over-year.
Adyen (EU:ADYEN) shares fell 6.2% despite increased Q3 sales. GN Store Nord (TG) performed well, with shares rising over 10.6%.
Italy’s Banco BPM (BIT:BAMI), the country’s third-largest bank, offered $1.7 billion to take full control of Anima Holding (BIT:ANIM), boosting its shares. Using its insurance unit, the bank reduces capital requirements, leveraging favorable rules.
Swiss Re (TG:SR9) raised its U.S. liability reserves to $2.4 billion in Q3, easing investor concerns about adequacy. The company projects annual net income above $3 billion.
Mobico Group (LSE:MCG) announced it is on track to meet its profit goal, driven by high passenger demand and cost-cutting measures. Q3 revenue rose 12%, with significant gains in Alsa and North America, though revenue fell in Germany and the UK. Shares rose 5.1%.
Rolls-Royce (LSE:RR.) maintained its profit growth forecast of at least 30% this year, driven by demand from airlines, energy, and defense sectors, despite supply chain issues. Shares fell 4.2%.
Daimler Truck (TG:DTG) reported €1.19 billion Q3 profit, slightly above expectations, thanks to strong North American performance despite European weakness. Shares are up 5.6%.
Air France-KLM (EU:AF) reported a larger-than-expected Q3 operating loss of $1.27 billion, below estimates. Olympic costs and high expenses weighed on results, despite a 3.7% revenue increase. Shares are down 11.1%.
Wizz Air (LSE:WIZZ) posted a 33.2% lower operating profit, with shares down 3.5%.
Telefónica (LSE:0A2Y) reaffirmed its financial targets despite a loss in Peru. Shares fell 0.7%.
Sainsbury’s (LSE:SBRY) maintained its profit growth forecast of up to 10% for the year, with H1 sales rising 3.7%, driven by strong food sales despite weak performance in other products. Shares dropped 1.5%.
Delivery Hero (TG:DHER) expects annual gross merchandise value (GMV) growth to reach the upper end of the 7%-9% range after a 9% Q3 increase, totaling $13.12 billion. However, GMV in Asia fell 6.6%. Shares rose 2.6%.
Howden Joinery Group (LSE:HWDN) shares fell 2.8% after reporting lower H2 revenue due to challenging market conditions, now expecting pretax profit at the low end of estimates. Revenue fell 0.1% year-over-year despite market share gains. The company anticipates tough conditions next year and estimates an additional £18 million in costs from insurance and minimum wage increases.
On Wednesday, U.S. indices closed sharply higher following Donald Trump’s presidential election win, fueled by expectations of reduced regulation and tax cuts. The Dow gained 3.6%, the Nasdaq 3.0%, and the S&P 500 2.5%, led by financial and oil sectors. Markets now await the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision, with an anticipated 25-basis-point rate cut.
In quarterly reports, earnings from Vistra Energy (NYSE:VST), Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA), Barrick Gold (NYSE:GOLD), Datadog (NASDAQ:DDOG), Halliburton (NYSE:HAL), GEO Group (NYSE:GEO), Hershey (NYSE:HSY), Esperion (NASDAQ:ESPR), Medical Properties Trust (NYSE:MPW) and Cameco (NYSE:CCJ) are expected before the market opens.
After the close, earnings from DraftKings (NASDAQ:DKNG), Arista Networks (NYSE:ANET), Block (NYSE:SQ), Rivian (NASDAQ:RIVN), Unity (NYSE:U), The Trade Desk (NASDAQ:TTD), Affirm (NASDAQ:AFRM), Airbnb (NASDAQ:ABNB), Fortinet (NASDAQ:FTNT) and Pinterest (NYSE:PINS) will be released.