The current Bitcoin bull run could still have significant momentum left, according to a new analysis from Piper Sandler. Analyst Patrick Moley points to historical trends related to Bitcoin’s halving cycles as evidence that the rally may extend for several more months.
“Historical data from previous Bitcoin halving cycles suggests that this bull market could continue for approximately another five months,” Moley wrote in a note released Friday.
Bitcoin halving events – which reduce the reward for mining Bitcoin by half – occur roughly every four years and have historically coincided with sustained price uptrends. Moley notes that Bitcoin reached its peaks 1,069 days after the cycle low in 2017 and 1,059 days after the cycle low in 2021.
If the current cycle bottom is pegged at $15,500 on November 21, 2022, then we’re currently around 906 days into the cycle. Based on previous timelines, this would suggest a potential peak in October 2025 – around 158 days from now.
“In each of the past three cycles (2013, 2017, and 2021), Bitcoin gained an average of roughly 585% in the five months leading up to its peak,” Moley added. “We believe this rally still has room to grow and expect crypto-related companies to benefit from rising digital asset prices and increased trading activity.”
However, the firm also flagged a critical caveat: regulatory uncertainty remains a major hurdle. Although the SEC and FDIC have made some promising moves – such as establishing a dedicated crypto task force and offering clearer guidance to banks – the absence of comprehensive crypto regulation remains a challenge for the industry.
Among publicly traded crypto stocks, Moley identified Robinhood (NASDAQ:HOOD) as a top pick in the current cycle. He cited the company’s broad-based platform, which includes equities, options, and crypto, and highlighted record trading volumes in April – even as crypto volumes dipped slightly from March.
Conversely, Moley struck a more cautious tone on Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN). Although its proposed $2.9 billion acquisition of crypto derivatives exchange Deribit could strengthen its global presence, he warned that regulatory barriers remain.
“Deribit currently doesn’t offer any derivatives products that meet U.S. regulatory standards,” he noted. “If the acquisition were finalized today, Coinbase would be unable to market those products to its primarily U.S.-based customers.”
Looking ahead, Moley expects Bitcoin mining companies to perform well into the second half of 2025, driven by increasing demand for both crypto and AI-related power infrastructure.