Benchmark has raised its price target for Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) to $475, up from a previous estimate of $350, citing the promising rollout of the company’s robotaxi pilot in Austin, Texas.
According to analyst Mickey Legg, the pilot’s limited scope reflects a “measured and safety-driven strategy” that could enhance public and regulatory confidence in Tesla’s autonomous technology. The upcoming implementation of Texas’ new self-driving vehicle regulations, which take effect on September 1, could pave the way for further expansion of Tesla’s robotaxi services across the state.
Tesla’s stock has bounced back strongly since its April lows, climbing 54% as concerns over tariffs have subsided and investor enthusiasm around self-driving innovation has grown. Still, the share price is trading roughly 33% below its December high of $488.
Legg reiterated Tesla as one of Benchmark’s top investment picks for 2025. “We’re returning to our prior $475 target, which aligns with our long-term outlook,” he wrote in a note released Thursday.
While Alphabet’s Waymo currently leads the autonomous ride-hailing market with service in four U.S. cities and approximately 250,000 rides per week, Legg argues Tesla’s method offers more potential for large-scale deployment. Tesla’s camera-based system, he said, is both more affordable and easier to scale compared to Waymo’s LiDAR-equipped fleet, which includes more expensive vehicles.
Tesla is expected to release its second-quarter delivery figures next week, which analysts forecast will reflect a year-over-year dip. Legg, however, believes that any softness is already factored into the current share price, with stronger performance likely in the back half of 2025.
Looking ahead, Benchmark sees multiple growth catalysts for Tesla: the ramp-up of its robotaxi network, upcoming vehicle model updates, and long-term opportunities tied to its Optimus humanoid robots.
“The company is evolving beyond its roots as an electric vehicle manufacturer,” Legg said. “It’s positioning itself as a major player in automation and robotics, with an unmatched footprint in U.S.-based manufacturing.”
Tesla closed the first quarter with $37 billion in cash and generated over $600 million in free cash flow. Benchmark noted that this financial strength gives the company ample flexibility to invest in future growth initiatives.
The updated valuation assumes a 53.9x multiple on Tesla’s projected 2028 EBITDA—almost double the average 27.1x multiple of its technology-sector peers.