On Tuesday, oil prices fell to their lowest levels in three weeks, retreating to figures last seen before the recent escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran. The decline reflects reduced concerns about supply interruptions and expectations of a production increase from OPEC and its allied nations.
September Brent crude futures slipped 0.3% to $66.57 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contracts also declined 0.3%, settling at $63.64 per barrel as of early evening Eastern Time. This marks Brent’s lowest price point since mid-June, shortly before the Middle East conflict erupted.
Calm appears to be holding following a ceasefire deal between Israel and Iran, easing geopolitical risks that had pressured oil markets in recent weeks.
Investor focus now turns to the upcoming OPEC+ summit, where the oil-exporting coalition—including major producers like Saudi Arabia and Russia—is expected to announce a further easing of output restrictions. Industry insiders anticipate a gradual ramp-up in production following a series of modest increases over the past months.
Sources indicate that the group may add roughly 411,000 barrels per day to supply in August, continuing a trend that has seen incremental production boosts in May, June, and July. This would raise the total additional output for the year to nearly 1.78 million barrels per day. Despite these increases, the total supply remains below the volume previously cut by OPEC+ during the last two years.
The planned output hike reflects ongoing efforts to balance global supply amid sustained downward pressure on prices. Key OPEC+ members remain committed to managing production carefully to avoid oversupply that could further weaken the market.
Meanwhile, uncertainties surrounding U.S. trade policies continue to stir market nerves. With the July 9 deadline set by President Donald Trump to finalize trade deals fast approaching, concerns about potential tariffs linger. Trump recently criticized Japan’s agricultural import rules and hinted that negotiations could collapse.
Furthermore, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent cautioned that several countries, including Japan and India, might face tariffs exceeding 20% despite ongoing negotiations. This has raised fears that escalating trade disputes could slow global economic growth and reduce oil demand.