U.S. Inflation Meets Expectations in June; New York Manufacturing Rebounds Sharply

Consumer price growth in the U.S. aligned with economists’ projections in June, according to data released Tuesday by the Labor Department.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed 0.3% in June, a faster pace than the 0.1% increase recorded in May. On a year-over-year basis, inflation accelerated to 2.7%, up from 2.4% the previous month and slightly above the forecasted 2.6%.

Core inflation—which excludes volatile food and energy costs—rose 0.2% for the month, following a 0.1% uptick in May. That result came in slightly below the expected 0.3% increase. However, annual core inflation matched forecasts, edging up to 2.9% from 2.8% the month prior.

Separately, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported a strong rebound in regional manufacturing sentiment for July. The Empire State Manufacturing Index jumped to +5.5 from -16.0 in June, surpassing economists’ expectations of a -10.0 reading. A positive figure signals expansion in activity.

Looking ahead, firms appear increasingly optimistic. The index measuring expectations for future business conditions rose to 24.1, up from 21.2 in June, indicating confidence in continued momentum over the coming months.

A slate of speeches from Federal Reserve officials is also on the agenda Tuesday, likely to offer further insight into the central bank’s economic outlook. At 9:15 a.m. ET, San Francisco Fed President Michelle Bowman is set to give opening remarks at the “Unleashing a Financially Inclusive Future” conference.

Later in the day, Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr will address the same event at 12:45 p.m. ET, followed by Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin at 1:00 p.m. ET, speaking to the Greater Baltimore Committee on forecasting economic trends.

At 2:45 p.m. ET, Boston Fed President Susan Collins will present her outlook at the National Association for Business Economics’ annual Economic Measurement Seminar. The day wraps with Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan delivering opening remarks at a World Affairs Council event in San Antonio at 7:45 p.m. ET.

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