On Monday, oil prices remained relatively unchanged as markets anticipated that the recent European Union sanctions would have only a minimal effect on Russian oil exports.
By 0800 GMT, Brent crude futures had slipped 12 cents, or 0.2%, to $69.16 a barrel, after dropping 0.35% on Friday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was flat at $67.34, following a 0.3% decline in the previous session.
The EU’s 18th sanctions package against Russia, imposed over the Ukraine conflict, also targeted India’s Nayara Energy, which exports refined products made from Russian crude.
Harry Tchiliguirian of Onyx Capital Group commented, “The latest round of EU sanctions aren’t necessarily going to change the oil balance. That’s why the market is not reacting much.” He added, “Russians have been very good at circumventing these kinds of sanctions.”
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated on Friday that Russia has developed a certain level of immunity to Western sanctions.
These EU sanctions followed U.S. President Donald Trump’s warning last week that buyers of Russian exports would face sanctions unless Russia reached a peace deal within 50 days.
According to ING analysts, the most significant market impact may come from the EU’s ban on imports of refined oil products processed from Russian crude in third countries, though monitoring enforcement will be challenging.
Separately, Iran, also under sanctions, is set to hold nuclear talks with Britain, France, and Germany in Istanbul this Friday, according to an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson. The talks come after the European nations warned that failure to restart negotiations could lead to renewed sanctions on Iran.
In the U.S., Baker Hughes reported that the number of active oil rigs dropped by two last week to 422, the lowest level since September 2021.
U.S. tariffs on EU imports are scheduled to begin on August 1, but U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick expressed confidence on Sunday that a trade deal could still be reached.
Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG Markets, said, “Tariff concerns will continue to weigh in the lead up to the August 1 deadline, while some support may come from oil inventory data if it shows tight supply.” He added, “It feels very much like a $64-$70 range in play for the week ahead.”
Since the June 24 ceasefire that ended the 12-day Israel-Iran conflict, Brent crude futures have traded between $66.34 and $71.53 a barrel.
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