Shares of Marvell Technology (NASDAQ:MRVL) jumped 10% on Wednesday after analysts at Fubon Research pointed to a potentially lucrative collaboration with Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) centered around next-generation AI chips.
Fubon revealed that Microsoft has upgraded the design specs of its upcoming Maia300 chip—currently in development by Marvell—from 3nm with HBM3E to a more advanced 2nm architecture with HBM4. The change, while delaying production from early 2026 to Q4 2026, could significantly boost Marvell’s future revenue.
Initial production of the Maia300 chip is expected to reach 300,000–400,000 units in late 2026, with ramp-up plans targeting 1.2–1.5 million units in 2027. At an estimated average selling price of $8,000 per chip, Fubon forecasts that Marvell could generate $2.4 billion in revenue in 2026, scaling up to $10–12 billion in 2027.
Fubon analysts commented that Microsoft is placing “higher expectations on Maia300 by MRVL, rather than Maia200 which is its own solution.” This shift signals a deeper reliance on Marvell’s expertise as Microsoft reportedly grapples with internal chip design limitations. According to the report, Microsoft is likely to “rely more on MRVL for the current generations.”
In the meantime, Microsoft has upped the production volume for its Maia200 chip—which it develops in-house—from an estimated 40,000–60,000 units to between 150,000 and 200,000 units in 2026. This move is seen as a stopgap ahead of the Maia300’s delayed rollout.
Fubon also pointed out a notable pricing dynamic in the AI chip market. It said Microsoft’s pricing strategy for Maia300 may be more generous than Amazon Web Services, noting the $8,000 average selling price (ASP) is much higher than AWS’s Trainium 2 chip, which goes for around $1,500, even though “both projects have similar turnkey margins of 55–60%.”
Marvell Technology stock price
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