Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) shares fell more than 12% in premarket U.S. trading on Thursday following a study showing its experimental weight-loss pill achieved less body weight reduction compared to a competitor from Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO).
The late-stage trial revealed that Lilly’s oral GLP-1 drug, orforglipron, helped patients lose an average of 12.4% of their body weight after 72 weeks. In contrast, participants receiving a placebo lost just 0.9%.
Lilly has promoted orforglipron as a more affordable, once-daily alternative to injectable obesity treatments like its own Zepbound and Novo’s Wegovy. These drugs currently dominate the growing obesity market, which is expected to reach $150 billion by the early 2030s.
However, analysts cited by Reuters had anticipated orforglipron to match or exceed Wegovy’s 14.9% weight loss reported in a 2021 trial. Some had even predicted orforglipron might outperform Wegovy.
Adding to the competitive pressure, a June study from Novo Nordisk showed its experimental drug CagriSema led to nearly 23% weight loss in overweight or obese adults, with overweight type 2 diabetes patients losing close to 16%.
Mizuho analysts highlighted a nearly 25% dropout rate among patients on the highest orforglipron dose in Lilly’s study, alongside a 29.9% dropout in the placebo group. They questioned the study’s design, saying the high dropout rates were “surprising and almost does not compute,” indicating a need for more clarity.
Despite the weight-loss pill setback, Lilly reported robust second-quarter earnings. Revenue rose 38% year-over-year to $15.56 billion, driven by stronger-than-expected $3.38 billion sales of Zepbound.
Bloomberg consensus had forecast group revenue of $14.7 billion.
Adjusted earnings per share increased to $6.31, up from $3.92 a year earlier.
Following the results, Lilly raised the midpoint of its 2025 full-year revenue guidance by $1.5 billion to a range of $60 billion to $62 billion. Its adjusted EPS outlook also increased to $21.75 to $23.
CEO David Ricks noted that the company benefited from “sustained momentum” across key products and that its pipeline continued progressing, with positive results in oncology and cardiometabolic health.
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