Morgan Stanley analysts believe that humanoid robots could soon become economically viable alternatives to human labor, thanks to their low operational costs and rising capabilities driven by AI.
In a recent report focused on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), the bank estimated that a single humanoid robot operating at a cost of $5 per hour could match the output of two human workers earning $25 per hour. That level of productivity could create a lifetime economic value of around $200,000 per robot.
“We estimate 1 humanoid robot at $5/hour can do the work of 2 humans at $25/hour, generating a net present value (NPV) of approximately $200k/humanoid,” analysts led by Adam Jonas wrote.
According to Morgan Stanley, affordability and safety will be the primary forces driving widespread adoption of humanoid and autonomous machines, just as previous breakthroughs like the wheel, electricity, and the internet reshaped the economy.
The report also looked at future transportation models, suggesting that robot-designed vehicles could slash ride-sharing costs. The analysts believe that these robot-shaped cars could reduce the cost per mile to under $0.20—roughly one-tenth of what it costs to operate a human-driven ride-share.
They added that autonomous electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft could bring in the same revenue as 15 traditional ride-share cars.
Morgan Stanley continues to rate Tesla as “Overweight” and maintains it as one of its top investment picks.
The analysts described the evolution of humanoid robots and AI-enabled machines as part of a broader economic shift toward what they term “Robonomics,” in which intelligent machines increasingly take on high-value, complex work.
Eventually, the bank suggests, the marginal cost of owning a humanoid personal assistant—akin to “C-3PO”—could drop to little more than the cost of electricity required to operate it.
Tesla has already taken a step toward that future. Last month, the company finalized a $16.5 billion chip supply agreement with Samsung Electronics (USOTC:SSNHZ), with production slated for Samsung’s new facility in Taylor, Texas.
The AI6 chips developed under the deal are designed to support self-driving systems and Tesla’s Optimus humanoid robot, with broader potential applications in artificial intelligence. Still, analysts caution that the deal may bolster Samsung’s chipmaking division more than it accelerates Tesla’s EV or robotaxi ambitions.
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