U.S. stock futures were mixed Tuesday as investors awaited crucial inflation figures that may shed light on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate direction. In parallel, President Donald Trump nominated a new commissioner for the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, following the recent firing of the former head after a disappointing jobs report. Meanwhile, Elon Musk publicly accused Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) of unfairly favoring OpenAI’s ChatGPT on its App Store, threatening legal action.
Futures fluctuate ahead of inflation report
Ahead of the key inflation release, futures contracts showed little clear direction. By 2:58 a.m. ET, Dow futures had gained 75 points (0.2%), S&P 500 futures dropped 7 points (0.1%), and Nasdaq 100 futures were down 38 points (0.2%).
In the previous session, U.S. stock indexes declined slightly as investors digested news that Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) agreed to give the U.S. government a 15% cut on AI chip sales to China. Shares of Nvidia and AMD ended down by 0.35% and 0.28%, respectively, amid concerns over potential margin pressure and precedent for export levies.
The market appeared unfazed by Trump’s announcement extending the U.S.-China trade truce by 90 days, a move Vital Knowledge analysts described as “widely expected.” The existing temporary agreement was due to expire Tuesday.
Inflation data takes center stage
All attention is on Tuesday’s consumer price index (CPI) report. Inflation is forecast to tick up modestly to 2.8% year-over-year for July, with a 0.2% monthly rise. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, is expected to accelerate to 3.0% annually and 0.3% monthly.
These figures will be key for the Federal Reserve’s September rate decision. Following a weak July jobs report and downward revisions to prior months, market bets for a 25 basis point rate cut have increased. Inflation data in line with or below expectations would likely strengthen those bets.
However, hotter-than-expected inflation could cause hesitation among policymakers, especially as the Fed remains cautious due to worries that Trump’s tariff policies could fuel price increases. Trump has criticized the Fed’s “wait-and-see” stance, calling for quicker and deeper cuts—a view that created some dissent during July’s policy meeting.
Trump names new BLS commissioner
Amid the inflation discussion, scrutiny of government data accuracy has intensified after Trump dismissed Labor Department Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner Erika McEntarfer, accusing her without proof of manipulating statistics for political gain following the weak jobs figures.
On Monday, Trump announced economist E.J. Antoni as McEntarfer’s nominee to lead the BLS, pending Senate approval. Antoni holds a doctorate in economics and has previously voiced criticism of the agency responsible for key economic data monitored by investors and policymakers.
Trump posted on his social media platform, “E.J. will ensure that the Numbers released are HONEST and ACCURATE.”
Some analysts, quoted by Reuters, voiced reservations about Antoni, warning his appointment could spur greater demand for private-sector economic data.
Musk calls out Apple, threatens lawsuit
Elon Musk accused Apple of anti-competitive behavior in the App Store, declaring his AI startup xAI plans “immediate legal action” over what he claims is preferential treatment for OpenAI’s ChatGPT.
Posting on X late Monday, Musk argued Apple’s practices “make it impossible for any AI company besides OpenAI to reach #1 in the App Store, which is an unequivocal antitrust violation.”
He questioned why X and xAI’s chatbot Grok were excluded from Apple’s “Must Have” app list, despite being, by his account, the top news app worldwide and fifth overall.
“Are you playing politics? What gives?” Musk asked, alleging ChatGPT “appears in every list where (Apple has) editorial control.”
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman responded on X, saying, “This is a remarkable claim given what I have heard alleged that Elon does to manipulate X to benefit himself and his own companies and harm his competitors and people he doesn’t like.”
Australia’s central bank cuts rates again
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) lowered its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.60%, signaling potential further easing amid slowing inflation.
This marks the third rate cut this year since the easing cycle began in the first quarter. The RBA also revised down its 2025 economic growth forecast to below 2%, citing inflation cooling as a reason for possible additional cuts.
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