Crude prices ticked up on Thursday as traders watched for potential supply impacts from an upcoming meeting between the U.S. and Russian presidents.
By 08:45 ET (12:45 GMT), Brent crude futures for October delivery were up 0.5% at $65.94 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate futures gained 0.5% to $62.97. Despite the day’s gains, both benchmarks remain on track for weekly declines of about 1%.
Ukraine Peace Talks in Focus
U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are set to meet Friday in Alaska to negotiate a possible Ukraine ceasefire. On Wednesday, Trump warned of “severe consequences” if Putin fails to agree to peace. He has also previously threatened steep tariffs on key buyers of Russian oil, including India and China.
Should Trump follow through on those threats—or impose further restrictions on Russia’s energy sector—global supply could tighten, supporting crude prices. Conversely, easing sanctions could put additional downward pressure on the market.
“Clearly, there’s upside risk for the market if little progress is made,” analysts at ING noted. “This could have Trump extending secondary tariffs on other buyers of Russian energy. The expected oil surplus through the latter part of this year and 2026, combined with OPEC spare capacity, means that the market should be able to manage the impact of secondary tariffs on India. But things become more difficult if we see secondary tariffs on other key buyers of Russian crude oil, including China and Turkey.”
Supply Concerns and Inventory Build Weigh on Sentiment
This week’s declines in oil prices were largely driven by bearish production forecasts from both the U.S. Energy Information Administration and the International Energy Agency.
The IEA cautioned that global supplies are becoming “bloated” after steady output increases from OPEC+ throughout the year. The agency also projected a substantial surplus in 2025 and 2026, with a glut of up to 3 million barrels per day by 2026, alongside slowing demand in the months ahead.
Adding to the pressure, U.S. data showed crude inventories rising by 3 million barrels last week, far exceeding expectations for a 900,000-barrel draw. The build reflects the winding down of the busy summer travel season in the U.S., which typically spans three months of strong fuel consumption before demand tapers off into autumn and winter.
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