Global appetite for oil is set to keep climbing over the next two years, according to OPEC’s August oil market report, which projects demand will reach 107.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in the final quarter of 2026. That’s an increase from the 106.4 million bpd expected in the last quarter of 2025.
The forecast outlines a steady upward trend in consumption, with global demand rising from 104.3 million bpd in the first quarter of 2025 to 105.7 million bpd by the second quarter of 2026.
For OECD nations, demand is expected to tick up from 46.1 million bpd in Q4 2025 to 46.3 million bpd a year later, with the Americas—driven largely by the United States—remaining the biggest consumers. U.S. demand alone is forecast to edge up from 20.7 million bpd to 20.8 million bpd over the same period.
China’s consumption is also expected to expand, moving from 17.0 million bpd in late 2025 to 17.2 million bpd by the end of 2026.
On the production side, output from countries outside the OPEC-led Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) group, along with natural gas liquids (NGLs) from DoC members, is seen rising from 62.6 million bpd in Q1 2025 to 64.1 million bpd by Q4 2026.
The United States is projected to maintain its lead as the largest non-OPEC producer, boosting output from 21.8 million bpd to 22.5 million bpd over that timeframe. Latin America is also poised for notable growth, with supply climbing from 7.4 million bpd to 8.0 million bpd.
Breaking down the numbers, non-DoC supply alone is forecast to rise from 54.0 million bpd in early 2025 to 55.2 million bpd by late 2026, while DoC NGLs are expected to edge up from 8.7 million bpd to 8.9 million bpd.
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.