Oil prices inched higher on Monday as markets awaited a high-stakes meeting in Washington between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, with traders weighing the potential impact on global supply.
By 07:45 ET (11:45 GMT), October Brent crude futures rose 0.5% to $66.18 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures gained 0.7%, reaching $62.41 per barrel. Both benchmarks had dropped roughly 1.5% on Friday, closing the week with steep losses following the U.S.-Russia summit.
Focus Turns to Washington
Trump is scheduled to meet Zelensky later in the day, alongside several European leaders, as the group seeks a path toward ending Europe’s deadliest conflict in eight decades. The European coalition aims to prevent any outcome that could compromise Ukraine’s territorial integrity.
This follows an earlier summit in Alaska between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, which produced no tangible agreements. Trump previously stated that a ceasefire would be his “key demand,” even warning that he might walk out of discussions and impose harsher measures on Moscow. That stance had stoked fears of tighter supply constraints.
“While talks failed to secure a ceasefire, the tone and the absence of ’severe consequences’ for the lack of a truce, reduce, or at least delay, the risks of stricter sanctions,” ING analysts said in a note.
However, White House trade adviser Peter Navarro expressed concerns on Monday over India’s purchases of Russian crude, stating that they were funding Moscow’s war in Ukraine and needed to stop.
“India acts as a global clearinghouse for Russian oil, converting embargoed crude into high-value exports while giving Moscow the dollars it needs,” Navarro said.
China and India remain the largest buyers of Russian crude. In response, Trump has announced a 25% additional duty on Indian goods starting August 27, citing India’s Russian oil imports.
“Ultimately, Russia still wants Ukraine to cede territory, something Ukraine will be very hesitant to do, particularly without very strong security guarantees from the US and Europe,” ING analysts added.
“Ultimately, the reduced risk of tougher sanctions and secondary tariffs should allow bearish oil fundamentals to become the dominant driver for oil prices moving forward,” they said.
Eyes on Jackson Hole
Outside of geopolitical developments, investors are closely monitoring comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at this week’s Jackson Hole symposium for indications about U.S. interest rate cuts.
Markets widely expect a 25-basis-point cut at the Fed’s September meeting, though last week’s hotter-than-expected producer price data has all but ruled out a larger 50-bps reduction. Lower interest rates generally stimulate economic activity, which in turn tends to lift energy demand.
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