Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) offered a glimpse of its autonomous future with a robotaxi trial in Austin, showcasing both competitive pricing and a human-like driving experience, according to William Blair. The firm said the demonstration, held ahead of the public rollout in September, highlighted Tesla’s potential to gain market share using cost-efficient autonomous technology.
“Robotaxi was half the price of Uber (NYSE:UBER), demonstrating its ability to win market share by weaponizing price,” William Blair wrote, emphasizing Tesla’s clear cost advantage.
Analysts noted that Tesla’s autonomous technology stack costs roughly one-tenth of Waymo’s, giving the company flexibility to undercut rivals while scaling its dedicated robotaxi fleet. In side-by-side tests, William Blair said the differences between Tesla and Waymo were “immediate and stark.”
The note described Tesla’s service as familiar and comfortable, with driving that “felt as though a friendly ghost chauffeur was driving our personal car.”
“Driving was smooth and human-like, recognizing and patiently waiting for pedestrians, switching into less crowded lanes, patiently waiting to execute a safe unprotected turn, and yet, discerning and confident enough to drive through a light that just turned yellow, so as not to slam on the brakes,” said William Blair.
By contrast, Waymo, while safe, was “more…robotic,” with spinning lidar sensors audible and mandatory safety briefings required.
William Blair projected strong long-term potential for Tesla’s robotaxi business. The note assumes total annual rideshare miles of 1.1 trillion by 2040, with average prices per mile dropping from $2.50 to $1.25. Tesla is expected to capture a 35% market share compared with Waymo at 15%, Uber at 38%, and Lyft (NASDAQ:LYFT) at 13%, generating nearly $250 billion in revenue and EBITDA margins approaching 60%.
The analysts estimated an implied value of $298.61 per share for Tesla’s robotaxi segment, contributing to a total fair value of $357.43 per share for the company.
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