Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) continued to expand its share of the U.S. e-commerce market in Q2, driven by strong retail growth and logistical advantages, according to JPMorgan.
In a recent update to its U.S. e-commerce model, the bank noted that online retail sales grew 5.3% year-over-year in Q2, largely in line with the 5.6% growth recorded in Q1.
“U.S. e-commerce penetration increased Y/Y for the 10th consecutive quarter in 2Q, up +17bps Y/Y to 21.9% of adjusted retail sales,” the analysts wrote.
Amazon’s retail operations outpaced the broader market. JPMorgan highlighted that global first-party sales rose 10% YoY in constant currency, compared with 6% in the previous quarter, while third-party sales also jumped 10%, up from 7% in Q1. The growth was fueled by “outsized growth in essentials (~1/3 of units sold), record-fast SD1D delivery… and expansion of the Prime ecosystem,” the report said.
The analysts estimate Amazon’s U.S. e-commerce share climbed over two percentage points from a year ago, reaching 46.8% in Q2. Looking forward, they project market share to rise to 47.4% in Q3 and 49.2% in Q4.
“We believe Amazon remains well-positioned as the leader in e-commerce,” JPMorgan wrote, reiterating the stock as their “Best Idea.”
While the bank expects a slight slowdown in overall U.S. e-commerce growth in the second half of 2025 due to tougher comparisons and potential tariffs, it anticipates that penetration will continue climbing. “We continue to believe U.S. e-commerce penetration of Adj. Retail Sales could increase from ~23% in 2024 to 40%+ long term,” JPMorgan added.
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