Artificial intelligence has the potential to deliver around $920 billion in net yearly benefits to companies in the S&P 500, according to new research from Morgan Stanley.
In a note published Monday, the bank estimated that AI adoption could drive $13 trillion to $16 trillion in long-term market value creation for the index. The analysis suggests that AI’s contribution will come from both cost savings and productivity improvements, with nearly 90% of jobs expected to be affected to some degree through automation and augmentation.
Morgan Stanley highlighted that “agentic AI,” or software-based applications, will likely have a broader impact on the workforce than embodied AI such as robotics. The bank sees more scope for augmenting human work rather than fully replacing it.
The report also pointed out significant differences in sector exposure. Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail, Real Estate Management & Development, and Transportation could all achieve savings exceeding 100% of their projected 2026 pretax earnings, while Health Care Equipment & Services was cited as another key winner. On the other hand, Technology Hardware and Semiconductors are expected to see comparatively limited benefits.
The potential upside is striking: Morgan Stanley estimates the AI-driven value creation could equal 24–29% of the S&P 500’s current market capitalization. The bank added that the expected $3 trillion in global AI capital expenditures through 2028—in data centers, chips, and related infrastructure—should generate attractive returns.
While the $920 billion forecast assumes full adoption, which will take time, the bank argued that the longer-term opportunity could be far larger.
“AI adoption market value creation potential, beyond the confines of the S&P 500, is likely to be multiples of the $13-16 trillion,” Morgan Stanley said.
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