Bank of America (BofA) analysts have increased their long-term gold price target by 25% to $2,500 per ounce, citing enduring factors that have supported the metal’s rally in recent years, according to a note released Friday. Silver forecasts were also revised upward, with a long-term target raised by 30% to $35 an ounce.
The updated outlook reflects expectations that structural weaknesses in the U.S. economy, including ongoing fiscal deficits, inflationary pressures from deglobalization, questions about the Federal Reserve’s independence, and rising geopolitical tensions, will continue to sustain strong demand for gold.
BofA also boosted its six-year average gold price forecast by 6% to $3,049 per ounce, while raising its silver average by 7.5% to $38. Near-term estimates remained unchanged, with the 2025 gold forecast at $3,356 per ounce and 2026 at $3,659. Analysts reaffirmed a short- and medium-term upside target of $4,000 per ounce for gold.
The revisions extended to mining equities, with Gold Fields’ target increasing 17% to 640 South African rand from 547 rand, and Harmony Gold’s target adjusted to 260 rand from 250 rand. BofA noted that higher-cost producers could benefit most, given stronger operational leverage at elevated metal prices.
The brokerage emphasized that long-term price assumptions are critical for mining companies, influencing reserve valuations, capital expenditure decisions, and discounted cash flow models. At the close of 2024, the three-year trailing average gold price stood at roughly $2,050 per ounce—a level that could climb to $2,500 by the end of 2025 if current trends persist.
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