Goldman Sachs anticipates a significant decline in Brent crude prices over the next two years, with its analysts projecting a slide into the “low $50s by late 2026” as supply growth and stock accumulation put downward pressure on the market.
The bank’s forecast is driven by expectations of an oil surplus averaging 1.8 million barrels per day between the fourth quarter of 2025 and the fourth quarter of 2026, alongside the assumption that OECD commercial inventories will represent roughly one-third of global stock increases.
Goldman’s pricing model indicates that “an increase in OECD commercial stocks by 1 day of demand reduces the fair value of oil prices vs. long-dated prices … by just over $3/bbl.”
The trend already appears underway. Analysts pointed out that “global visible stocks have already built by nearly 1mb/d year to date and supply is rising,” even as OECD inventories lag behind the sharp increases seen in Chinese storage and oil held at sea.
Still, the bank emphasized that OECD stock levels remain the most reliable signal for Brent time spreads. Its projections suggest OECD inventories will expand at about 600,000 barrels per day through 2026, a pace consistent with balance estimates.
“Oil on water briefly keeps stocks on land tight but tends to start landing in OECD storage within a month,” Goldman wrote. By contrast, “China inventories compete more persistently with OECD stocks.”
According to the forecast, Brent prices are likely to hover near forward contracts in 2025 but dip below them the following year as OECD stock growth accelerates. Potential risks include stronger Chinese stockpiling or a sharper decline in Russian supply.
If China builds inventories more aggressively, Goldman sees Brent averaging closer to $62 in 2026—still below today’s levels, but above its baseline call.
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