Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) is preparing to reveal its iPhone 17 lineup in just two weeks, but analysts at Jefferies warn that the launch may mark “the iPhone 17 Pro sales may be the toughest one ever” for the company.
The new range will introduce the iPhone 17 Air, a replacement for the Plus model. Positioned as a premium device with an ultra-thin design and several Pro-level features, the Air will also come with a higher price tag. However, Jefferies cautions that limited battery life and camera performance may curb its appeal.
Analysts led by Arthur Liao noted that the iPhone 17 Air was designed as a step toward a future foldable iPhone, since “two iPhone 17 Air combined will form a standard foldable smartphone.”
Still, consumer preferences remain clear. Apple users continue to favor larger displays, meaning the iPhone 17 Pro Max is expected to stay the most popular option for buyers who value screen size, battery, and camera performance.
Jefferies’ shipment forecast for the iPhone 17 family stands at 78.5 million units in the second half of 2025—slightly under Wall Street estimates. The tempered outlook reflects several headwinds for Apple, including the renewed threat of tariffs. CFO Luca Maestri previously warned that U.S. duties on Chinese imports could add roughly $900 million in extra costs for the June quarter.
Despite Apple’s ongoing push to expand production in India and Vietnam, China remains the backbone of its supply chain, leaving the company exposed to geopolitical risks.
At the same time, Apple is betting heavily on artificial intelligence to spark a new upgrade cycle. The iPhone 17 models will debut “Apple Intelligence,” a suite of on-device AI features, including an upgraded Siri built in partnership with OpenAI. Analysts believe these features will play a decisive role in whether the iPhone 17 series can generate enthusiasm similar to the iPhone 12 cycle.
“Apple’s investment case for 2025 is more complex and challenging than ever before,” Jefferies said, pointing to the mix of tariff risks, slowing international markets, and mounting competition.
Yet, the analysts also acknowledged that if Apple’s AI tools prove compelling enough to trigger a wave of upgrades—while services revenue remains solid—then the iPhone maker “still has a chance to recover lost ground in the second half of this year.”
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