Morgan Stanley analysts say Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) long-term trajectory is tightly connected to CEO Elon Musk and the company’s ventures into artificial intelligence.
The research note emphasizes Musk’s proposed compensation package as a crucial factor in understanding Tesla’s strategic direction. Morgan Stanley said it “puts to bed concerns over Elon’s long-term commitment to Tesla,” noting that Musk “has expressed his desire to hold at least a ‘blocking minority’ (25%-type stake) in the company to have some say in a potential change of control.”
With no immediate succession plan, the note suggests Musk’s involvement in Tesla is likely to deepen as the company scales AI-powered manufacturing and brings AI-enabled products to market.
The analysts noted that Tesla’s targets—including vehicle deliveries, Full Self-Driving subscriptions, and Robotaxi deployment—“appear achievable over a 10-year view,” although hitting the $400 billion adjusted EBITDA goal would require substantial contributions from AI-driven initiatives, such as the Optimus humanoid robots. They highlighted that even a one-percent adoption of U.S. labor by humanoid robots could translate into roughly $320 billion in market value.
Morgan Stanley also pointed to the broad definition Tesla uses for a “Bot,” which could encompass “humanoids, robotic arms, AMRs (autonomous mobile robots), non-vehicle drones, snake-dog robots, robots in space, robotic implants and much much more.”
The note further mentioned potential synergies with Musk’s xAI venture, suggesting the CEO could leverage AI opportunities to enhance Tesla’s market standing. Ultimately, the analysts concluded that, while execution will be critical, the compensation plan “aligns Tesla minority shareholder interest with those of Elon Musk” and reinforces his long-term commitment to the company.
Finally, Morgan Stanley noted that Musk’s absence from a recent White House tech dinner signals a “more ‘go it alone’ strategy” as Tesla pursues leadership in both physical AI and renewable energy.
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