U.S. stock futures rose modestly Thursday as investors prepared for crucial inflation data that could shape the Federal Reserve’s next moves. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is expected to leave rates unchanged in its policy announcement later in the day. Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE), the creator of Photoshop and Acrobat Pro, will also draw attention when it releases its quarterly results after the market close.
Futures Show Modest Uptick
By early Thursday morning, Dow futures were up 35 points, or 0.1%, S&P 500 futures rose 8 points, or 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 39 points, or 0.2%. On Wednesday, Wall Street’s main indices closed mixed. Strong earnings from AI-focused cloud software company Oracle, combined with a softer-than-expected increase in U.S. producer prices, drove optimism for a potential Fed rate cut.
Oracle’s shares jumped 36% in one day—their largest single-session gain since 1992—pushing its market value close to $1 trillion. In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.48%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite reached record highs.
Focus on August CPI
Investors are now turning to August’s consumer price index, a key gauge of inflationary pressures. Analysts expect headline CPI to rise 2.9% year-over-year, slightly higher than July’s 2.7%. These figures could influence the Fed as it balances the twin goals of supporting the labor market and maintaining long-term price stability.
Recent data showing a surprise drop in U.S. factory-gate prices, particularly for tariff-affected goods, has tempered concerns about runaway inflation. Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, have indicated a willingness to prioritize labor market support, suggesting a rate cut could stimulate investment and hiring, although it might also stoke inflation.
ECB Policy Decision
Before the Fed meets on September 16–17, the ECB will announce its own rate decision. The central bank is widely expected to hold borrowing costs at 2%. However, analysts note that discussions between those favoring steady rates and proponents of easing could be more contentious than markets anticipate.
Hawkish comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde in July, combined with stronger-than-expected inflation and growth, have moderated expectations for major policy shifts. Investors do not expect clear guidance on future moves, and the deposit rate is likely to remain unchanged for a second consecutive meeting.
Adobe in the Spotlight
Adobe is the highlight of Thursday’s earnings schedule. Analysts anticipate fiscal Q3 earnings of $5.18 per share on $5.91 billion in revenue. Despite raising full-year guidance in June, investors are monitoring the company’s progress in integrating AI into its products, amid concerns over cyclical and structural headwinds.
Oil Prices Slip Amid Demand Concerns
Crude prices retreated slightly as U.S. demand concerns offset geopolitical supply fears. Brent futures fell 0.1% to $67.40 a barrel, and West Texas Intermediate slipped 0.2% to $63.56 a barrel.
U.S. crude inventories increased by 3.9 million barrels for the week ending September 5, well above the expected draw of 1 million barrels. Gasoline stocks also grew by 1.5 million barrels, exceeding forecasts. The data points to potential slowing demand in the world’s largest energy consumer, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions boosting prices earlier in the week.
Gold Near Record Highs
Gold edged slightly lower but remained close to all-time highs as investors awaited U.S. CPI data. Expectations for a Fed rate cut continue to support bullion, with lower rates reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.
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