Deutsche Bank analysts have increased their 2026 gold price forecast, citing strong recent gains in the metal and expectations for potential U.S. interest rate cuts, as well as ongoing questions over the Federal Reserve’s independence.
In a client briefing, the team led by Michael Hsueh raised the average projected price for 2026 to $4,000 per troy ounce, up from a previous $3,700/oz estimate. Spot gold recently touched $3,700, reflecting investor anticipation that the Fed will lower rates by at least 25 basis points at the end of its two-day policy meeting this week. Historically, lower rates support gold by reducing the opportunity cost of holding the metal, weakening the dollar, and increasing its appeal as a hedge against inflation and a safe-haven investment.
The analysts also flagged political factors affecting market sentiment. President Donald Trump has criticized the Fed for not cutting rates quickly enough, singled out Chair Jerome Powell, and attempted to remove Governor Lisa Cook over alleged property dealings. A federal appeals court blocked Trump’s action this week, with the White House expected to appeal to the Supreme Court.
“Challenges to Fed independence, along with changes in the composition of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, are creating uncertainty about how monetary policy will respond to next year’s economic conditions,” Deutsche Bank noted.
Demand for gold remains strong, driven largely by China. According to the analysts, China’s net gold imports via Hong Kong jumped 126.8% from June to July, while the country’s central bank continues to increase reserves. Globally, total gold demand—including over-the-counter trading—rose 3% year-over-year in the second quarter, with investment demand up 78%.
Despite the bullish outlook, Deutsche Bank highlighted several potential risks, including robust equity returns, more certainty around U.S. trade policy, tighter immigration regulations reducing labor needs, and the possibility that the Fed may hold rates steady in 2026. The analysts also noted that gold has historically underperformed in the fourth quarter.
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