Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is on track to deliver a solid third quarter, according to Wolfe Research, which expects the automaker’s delivery numbers to come in ahead of Wall Street forecasts.
“Q3 is poised to be a strong quarter,” Wolfe wrote, highlighting higher-than-anticipated demand in both the U.S. and China. The firm projects 465,000 to 470,000 deliveries, representing a 22% increase from the prior quarter and a 1% gain year over year, “well ahead of Consensus / WRe of 445k.”
Much of the momentum in the U.S. stems from customers looking to capitalize on the soon-to-expire $7,500 federal EV tax credit, while demand in China also provided a lift. “We estimate 165-170k deliveries in Q3, or ~10k above our prior est,” Wolfe said, noting that these numbers “largely do not reflect the recent launch of the Model Y L.”
Factoring in stronger delivery volumes, supportive global pricing, and contributions from Tesla’s energy unit, Wolfe anticipates earnings per share of $0.55 to $0.60 in the third quarter, versus the consensus estimate of $0.49. Auto gross margins, excluding regulatory credits, are expected to come in between 16.5% and 17%.
Looking to the final quarter of 2025, Wolfe cautioned that “Q4 will be more challenging,” with revenue and earnings pressured as U.S. demand was pulled forward by incentives. The firm assumes a quarter-on-quarter drag of about 30,000 units.
Even so, Wolfe flagged several potential supports heading into year-end: “seasonally stronger demand in Q4, especially in China & Europe,” upcoming model launches such as the Model Y L and Tesla’s lower-cost vehicles, an increase in energy storage deployments, and further advancements in autonomy.
The firm also pointed out that Tesla is “poised to enter several new US markets (including AZ, NV, and FL), increase their Austin fleet size, and roll-out FSD v14.”
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