Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) may report third-quarter deliveries that exceed Wall Street expectations, UBS analysts say.
In a note to clients, the bank raised its forecast to roughly 475,000 vehicles, describing it as “~8% above Visible Alpha consensus,” while noting it is “more inline with buyside expectations in the 470–475k range.”
This represents an upward revision from UBS’s previous estimate of 431,000 units and would mark a 3% increase year-on-year and a 24% sequential gain. Tesla is scheduled to announce results on October 2. “Despite a print that may be inline with buyside expectations, we tend to find the stock does react to beat/misses vs. the headline number,” UBS commented.
Several elements support the higher projection. The bank highlighted “strong deliveries in the US as Tesla pushes, and consumers take advantage of, the $7,500 IRA EV tax credit before its expiry at the end of September 2025.”
UBS also noted that this quarter could deliver “the highest quarterly US deliveries since mid-2023 and potentially the highest ever,” though it cautioned that demand may be pulled forward, hinting at a sequential drop in Q4.
European markets are reportedly performing well, with deliveries in the top eight countries up about 22% quarter-on-quarter through the first two months. In China, retail deliveries increased roughly 45% sequentially, and the bank also highlighted “strong delivery growth” in Turkey and South Korea.
UBS anticipates that deliveries will outpace production by about 7%, helping reduce the inventory built up in Q2. The firm kept its 2025 full-year forecast at 1.62 million vehicles but projected just 428,000 for Q4, down 14% from a year earlier.
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