Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is projected to exceed market expectations for third-quarter deliveries, driven by robust sales in both the United States and China, according to RBC Capital Markets.
RBC forecasts 456,000 deliveries for Q3, above consensus estimates of 440,000 from Visible Alpha and 448,000 from FactSet. This follows Q2’s 384,000 deliveries and reflects a likely boost in U.S. demand from the expiring Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) consumer credit at the end of September. RBC noted, however, that demand for new affordable models expected in Q4 may have deferred some Q3 purchases.
RBC’s tracking model, based on vehicle registration data in key markets, suggests U.S. deliveries could rise 22.5% quarter-on-quarter, with China up nearly 30%.
“Primary methodology based on registrations points to ~456k,” analyst Tom Narayan said in a note.
China continues to be a critical factor, with RBC estimating a 29.4% increase in Q3 deliveries versus Q2. The firm highlighted that July deliveries rose 41.4% from April, while August was 48.1% higher than May.
“The pledge from numerous auto companies in China to deliver payments to suppliers within 60 days and the Chinese government issuing an amendment to its price law have adversely impacted Chinese OEMs such as BYD, and may have increased Tesla’s numbers in the quarter,” Narayan said.
RBC anticipates Tesla’s September deliveries in China will be 12% higher than in June.
In Europe, RBC predicts a more modest sequential increase of 8.1%, reflecting ongoing challenges from EU tariffs on Chinese exports. U.S. deliveries are expected to total 168,632, driven by strong momentum in the final weeks of the quarter, with other regions contributing an additional 60,000 units, according to RBC’s note.
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