U.S. stock futures inched higher ahead of a busy trading week dominated by key economic data and the looming possibility of a federal government shutdown. Investors are closely watching September’s nonfarm payrolls report for insight into the U.S. labor market, a factor that could shape Federal Reserve policy in the months ahead. Analysts caution, however, that a potential government shutdown might delay the release of the jobs figures. Carnival Corp is also set to report earnings, while gold continues to hit record levels amid market uncertainty.
Futures Move Up
On Monday, Dow futures were up 161 points (0.4%), S&P 500 futures gained 27 points (0.4%), and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 124 points (0.5%) by 02:56 ET. Last week, U.S. stock indices finished higher on the back of inflation data that broadly met expectations, though the S&P 500 and Nasdaq snapped three-week winning streaks, ending the week in negative territory.
Labor Market in the Spotlight
The September nonfarm payrolls report, due Friday, could provide critical insight into U.S. employment. The Federal Reserve has emphasized the importance of monitoring employment conditions, having cut interest rates by 25 basis points earlier this month. Officials suggested that slowing employment trends may take precedence over persistent inflation.
Fed projections indicate that additional rate cuts may occur before year-end. Lower rates can boost hiring and investment but carry inflationary risks. Economists forecast that 51,000 jobs were added in September, up from 22,000 in August, with unemployment expected to remain at 4.3%. Analysts at ING said the broader jobs market “looks ominous,” noting that this is partly because “consumers themselves […] noticing that hiring conditions are deteriorating.”
Government Shutdown Adds Pressure
Market concerns are heightened by the threat of a U.S. government shutdown. Congress must pass a stopgap funding bill before Tuesday or risk the 15th partial shutdown since 1981. Republicans control both chambers, but Democratic support is required to pass the legislation. Democrats have rejected a short-term plan, insisting any bill restore funding cuts to healthcare programs. Leaders from both parties are meeting President Donald Trump on Monday. Over the weekend, Trump told Reuters he has “the impression” that Democrats may want to reach an agreement.
Carnival Earnings and Consumer Trends
Carnival Corp (NYSE:CCL) is the focus of Monday’s earnings, reflecting the continued popularity of cruises. Consumers wary of economic uncertainty are increasingly choosing travel experiences, helping Carnival’s margins reach their highest in nearly two decades during Q2. The cruise operator raised its annual profit outlook in June, citing “remarkable resilience amid heightened volatility,” and analysts noted favorable exchange rates have improved the second-half forecast. Carnival shares, expected to report Q3 EPS of $1.32, have climbed over 22% this year.
Gold Reaches New Heights
Gold prices surged past $3,800 an ounce as investors sought safe-haven assets amid shutdown fears. Expectations of further Fed rate cuts also supported the yellow metal, which historically performs well during periods of low rates or economic uncertainty. By 03:34 ET, spot gold jumped 1.4% to $3,810.85/oz, while futures rose 0.8% to $3,839.10/oz. Broader metals gained as the dollar weakened following in-line inflation data, keeping markets focused on potential rate cuts before the end of 2025.
Carnival Corporation stock price
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