Crude oil prices have faced significant downward pressure this week, and Citigroup anticipates further losses in the final quarter of 2025.
As of 06:35 ET (10:35 GMT), Brent crude futures were trading 0.6% higher at $64.49 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 0.6% to $60.84 a barrel. Despite this intraday bounce, both benchmarks are poised for weekly losses of roughly 8%.
“Brent oil prices have fallen to $65, reaching our 0-3mth point price target, as OPEC+ signaled another month of production increases and Iraq is seeing KRG oil exports resume via Turkey,” said analysts at Citi, in a note dated Oct. 2. “This came after last week’s intraday high of almost $70 on continued Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and oil export infrastructure.”
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, are scheduled to meet this weekend to discuss production strategies. Sources told Reuters that eight members of the alliance could approve an increase of 274,000–411,000 barrels per day in November—two to three times higher than October’s boost—as Saudi Arabia aims to regain market share.
“As we enter 4Q’25, we expect OPEC+ exports to rise as Mideast summer crude burn wanes seasonally, while the broader oil balance surplus could begin to show up more visibly in key hubs too,” Citi added.
In light of these dynamics, Citigroup has revised its short-term price projections, setting its 0–3 month point forecast at $60 a barrel for Brent and $57 a barrel for WTI. These figures align with the bank’s $60 average Brent forecast for Q1 2026.
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.