Oil prices extended their upward momentum on Tuesday after OPEC+ announced a smaller-than-expected production increase for November, easing concerns over a potential oversupply in the coming months.
As of 06:23 GMT, Brent crude futures rose 19 cents, or 0.29%, to $65.66 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained 19 cents, or 0.31%, to $61.88. Both benchmarks had closed more than 1% higher in the previous session after the producer alliance—comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia, and other partners—agreed to boost total output by 137,000 barrels per day from November.
The limited increase ran counter to expectations for a larger supply boost, signaling that OPEC+ remains measured in its production strategy amid projections of a supply surplus later this year and into next, analysts at ING said.
“Brent had fallen by around $5 per barrel last week in response to earlier expectations of a larger supply boost, so this mild rebound seems reasonable,” said Anh Pham, senior analyst at LSEG.
“For now, the market still appears capable of accommodating the extra volume, and we have yet to see a shift into contango at the front of the curve,” he added.
So far this year, the OPEC+ alliance has lifted production targets by more than 2.7 million barrels per day, roughly 2.5% of global demand.
Meanwhile, geopolitical risks continue to lend support to prices. Ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has disrupted energy supplies, and operations at Russia’s Kirishi refinery remain affected after a drone strike and fire on October 4 shut down its main CDU-6 distillation unit. Two industry sources said repairs could take about a month.
Nonetheless, the broader oil market faces downward pressure from increasing output by both OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers. Analysts warn that weaker global growth—especially if dampened by U.S. trade tariffs—could further suppress demand and intensify the risk of a supply glut in the months ahead.
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