Gold prices could climb above $4,400 per ounce during the first half of 2026, according to Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities.
Melek’s forecast comes amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will shift toward a more accommodative monetary policy as inflation continues to rise. At the same time, central banks and institutional investors are maintaining strong demand for the precious metal.
Gold has already reached record highs, breaking through the $4,000-per-ounce mark. The recent rally has been supported by growing conversations about de-dollarization and China’s initiatives to expand its bullion custody programs.
Investors have also been increasing their exposure to gold, driven by a fear of missing out and concerns that the ongoing U.S. government shutdown could push the Fed to cut rates further.
However, Melek cautioned that gold “appears overbought at current levels,” adding that any hesitation over the pace of rate cuts or a spike in market volatility “could trigger a sharp pullback in the near term,” potentially erasing some of the gains accumulated during the late-summer rally.
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