Crude oil prices moved higher on Monday, regaining some of the sharp losses from the previous session, as investors focused on the possibility of trade negotiations between the U.S. and China that could ease tensions between the world’s top two economies and energy consumers.
Brent crude futures climbed 92 cents, or 1.47%, to $63.65 per barrel by 06:22 GMT after Friday’s 3.82% drop, which marked its weakest close since May 7. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 89 cents, or 1.51%, to $59.79 a barrel, after sliding 4.24% on Friday to its lowest level since early May. WTI prices will settle on Tuesday, as Monday is a holiday in parts of the United States.
“Last week’s price meltdown was largely on the back of ceasefire in Gaza and return of U.S.-China trade volatility ahead of the 10-Nov trade truce deadline,” said Suvro Sarkar, energy analyst at DBS Bank. He added that the recent market decline now appears to be “capped by both parties’ willingness to negotiate,” with near-term price direction hinging on the outcome of the upcoming talks.
Tensions intensified last week after China broadened its rare earth export restrictions. In response, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that his administration would impose 100% tariffs on Chinese exports and add new export controls on “any and all critical software” by November 1.
Over the weekend, however, Trump sought to calm markets, writing on Truth Social: “Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine!”
The latest developments precede a potential meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in South Korea. Jamison Greer, the U.S. Trade Representative, said the meeting could still take place later this month.
“The most likely scenario seems to be that both sides pull back on the most aggressive policies and that talks lead to a further – and possibly indefinite – extension of the tariff escalation pause reached in May,” analysts at Goldman Sachs said in a note. Still, they cautioned that the risk of renewed escalation remains, which could temporarily push tariffs higher or lead to stricter export measures.
The oil market has been highly reactive to trade tensions between Washington and Beijing, with prices plunging earlier this year during previous flare-ups.
Meanwhile, customs data showed China’s crude oil imports rose 3.9% year-on-year in September to 11.5 million barrels per day — the highest level in 2025 — as refineries ramped up output and stockpiling activity increased.
In the Middle East, an official involved in the process confirmed that Hamas released the first seven surviving Israeli hostages on Monday. The move marked the initial phase of a ceasefire agreement that U.S. President Trump helped broker to end the conflict in Gaza.
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