HSBC analysts have lifted their price outlook for gold, projecting the precious metal could climb to $5,000 per ounce in 2026 as uncertainty across global markets deepens.
In a note to clients, the brokerage said that the ongoing surge in gold prices will likely stretch into the first half of 2026, supported by its safe-haven appeal amid mounting geopolitical tensions and uncertainty surrounding U.S. economic policy. Rising public debt and concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence could also sustain the rally.
Recent weeks have seen gold benefit from a mix of catalysts, including renewed U.S.-China trade frictions, fresh Fed rate cuts, Russian military incursions into NATO airspace, and a weaker U.S. dollar.
“This is a powerfully bullish cocktail which to date has not been seriously challenged by the bearish argument for lower prices,” the HSBC analysts wrote.
“In the current economic and geopolitical climate gold has been targeted by a wide array of investors as never before.”
In addition to traditional buyers like hedge funds and asset managers, institutional traders and wealthy individuals have been increasing their exposure to gold. Analysts noted that while some of this surge is driven by fear of missing out on a historic rally, many of these buyers are expected to maintain their positions because of gold’s role as a portfolio diversifier and “safe haven.”
Gold is often viewed as a secure investment during times of financial and political instability. This latest rally, however, has been strengthened further by expectations of lower U.S. interest rates — which make non-yielding assets like gold more attractive — as well as heavy central bank purchases and growing inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds.
On Friday, spot gold climbed 0.3% to $4,338.83 per ounce as of 06:04 ET (10:04 GMT) after briefly hitting a fresh record of $4,379.29 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures for December advanced 1.1% to $4,353.14 per ounce.
The metal is on pace for its ninth straight weekly gain and a fifth consecutive session of record-breaking highs.
While HSBC does not see an imminent reversal, the analysts did point to potential challenges ahead. Warning signs could emerge “down the road,” including sharp price swings, as extended rallies often prompt investors to “consolidate if not correct” their positions.
They also cautioned that higher prices could reduce physical demand while encouraging more supply. A downturn in equity markets might also lead investors to sell their gold holdings to raise liquidity and meet margin calls.
Taking these factors into account, HSBC analysts said they expect “some price moderation” in the second half of 2026.
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