Investors head into the week with eyes fixed on signs of a potential cooling of tensions between the U.S. and China, as high-level meetings could take place before the end of the month. Alongside trade developments, a busy stretch of corporate earnings and the release of delayed U.S. inflation data will shape sentiment in the days ahead.
1. U.S.–China Trade Tensions
Markets remain attuned to any signals that tariff hostilities between Washington and Beijing may be easing.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he plans to meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng this week to help “prevent an escalation of the levies.” Chinese state media also confirmed that He and Bessent have held “constructive discussions” and agreed to resume trade talks soon.
Last week, President Donald Trump said that his proposed triple-digit tariffs on China were “not sustainable,” even as he criticized Beijing’s decision to tighten restrictions on key rare earth exports. Trump also reaffirmed plans to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea later this month, telling reporters the U.S. is “going to be fine with China.”
Still, tariff measures remain a core part of the administration’s playbook. Trump has pledged to keep “massive” tariffs on India until it halts imports of Russian oil and has threatened to raise duties on Colombia amid a drug trade dispute.
Worries about trade frictions and concerns over U.S. regional banks helped push the CBOE Volatility Index to its highest level in nearly six months on Friday.
2. Tesla and Netflix Headline Earnings
The earnings calendar intensifies this week, with heavyweight names set to report.
Streaming leader Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) is slated to post results after Tuesday’s closing bell. Its stock has climbed more than 35% this year as it leans further into its advertising strategy. But investors are curious to hear how the platform has weathered the backlash prompted by tech mogul Elon Musk, who urged users to cancel their subscriptions following a controversy involving an animated show.
Meanwhile, Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) recently announced record third-quarter deliveries, though investors are mindful of the looming expiration of a U.S. EV tax credit.
Analysts at Vital Knowledge noted that “earnings reports for this company are nearly irrelevant as the bulk of the narrative and equity value isn’t related to the core business of manufacturing and selling autos but instead hope and hype for products that won’t impact income statement in a material way for years to come.” Tesla’s long-term story still revolves around its bets on robotaxis and full self-driving technology.
3. Intel in Focus
Chip giant Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC) will report earnings after the bell on Thursday.
Intel’s stock has rallied recently thanks to fresh capital infusions, including from NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) and SoftBank Group Corp.. The U.S. government is also taking a 10% stake, even after President Trump called for CEO Lip-Bu Tan’s resignation over conflict-of-interest concerns.
Intel has lagged in the AI race, falling behind rivals like Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD), and its foundry ambitions remain overshadowed by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company.
Analysts expect roughly break-even earnings in Q3, with a 1.2% revenue decline to $13.12 billion, citing weakness in its data center and AI segments.
4. Delayed U.S. Inflation Data
With many official economic reports delayed by the ongoing federal government shutdown, investors are keenly awaiting Friday’s September CPI release.
The CPI, a key gauge of inflation, lands just ahead of the Federal Reserve System’s October 28–29 policy meeting. Last month, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points amid softening labor data and persistent inflation concerns.
While the CPI print will give policymakers fresh input on prices, the lack of other data — including nonfarm payrolls — leaves the central bank with less visibility as it considers its next move.
5. Japan’s Leadership Vote
In Japan, lawmakers are set to vote Tuesday on the premiership of Sanae Takaichi, who is expected to become the country’s first female prime minister.
The ruling Liberal Democratic Party has secured enough support to form a coalition government under Takaichi. Seen as a fiscal dove, she is widely expected to boost government spending and resist further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan.
Her leadership prospects have already sparked a rally in Japanese equities, with the Nikkei 225 surging 3.47% on Monday to top 49,000 points and the TOPIX jumping 2.46%, both hovering near record highs.
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