Gold has smashed through roughly 50 record highs in 2025, cementing its position as one of the strongest-performing assets this year.
According to strategists at RBC Capital Markets, this remarkable run is being powered less by standard macroeconomic tailwinds and more by what they call “compounding uncertainty” — a persistent buildup of geopolitical and financial risks that continues to strengthen gold’s role as a hedge, safe haven, and portfolio stabilizer.
RBC strategists led by Christopher Louney wrote that political tension over a potential U.S. government shutdown, renewed U.S.-China trade friction, concerns about Federal Reserve System independence, fiscal strain, inflation anxiety, and currency debasement fears have all “together contributed to an otherwise consistent sense of uncertainty” that investors are responding to by increasing allocations to gold.”
Even modest shifts in global portfolios are proving powerful: the strategists highlight that “small rotation flows from bonds and equities, can have an outsized effect,” given how these incremental reallocations translate into significant physical demand.
They also stress that while this bull market is already substantial, its length — around 700 days — remains shorter than previous extended rallies that lasted over 1,000 days, implying that further upside is historically plausible.
RBC has once again revised its price projections upward. Its base case now sits at $4,227 per ounce in Q4, rising to $4,427 in 2026. The high case calls for prices between $4,963 in Q4 and $5,108 next year. The bank no longer considers a break above $5,000 to be far-fetched, viewing the most likely trading range as sitting between the new base and high scenarios.
Despite gold’s impressive gains, investor positioning remains moderate. Gold-backed exchange-traded product holdings have yet to reach their historical peaks in tonnage, while speculative activity still has “room to run.” Interest in upside options remains strong.
RBC also points to shifting asset allocation trends. Conversations with portfolio managers suggest that gold’s typical 5% cap in portfolios is “now being openly discussed in the 5-10% range,” with little evidence of profit-taking.
Another cornerstone of demand comes from central banks, which are expected to purchase over 850 tons this year. These official purchases are described as strategic rather than tactical, reinforcing gold’s “permission structure” as a reserve asset — in some cases ranking above euros or U.S. Treasuries on central bank balance sheets.
While high prices could temper consumer demand in key markets such as India and China, RBC expects cultural affinity and bullish expectations to keep retail buyers engaged. Scrap supply is also likely to remain constrained, as holders delay selling.
The strategists do not rule out a temporary plateau similar to the mid-April to mid-August pause. However, they note that a deeper correction would require a sudden shift in macroeconomic conditions and a sharp decline in uncertainty — neither of which they currently foresee.
As they put it, “bubbles do tend to pop, they also manage to float,” and for now, gold remains firmly buoyant.