Meta raises capex for 2025 and forecasts a jump in 2026; profit is affected by a one-time tax, but Q3 2025 revenue exceeds projections

Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) reported revenue of $51.24 billion in Q3 2025, up 26% year-over-year, exceeding estimates of $49.41–49.6 billion.

GAAP net income was $2.71 billion, pressured by an extraordinary non-monetary tax expense of $15.93 billion related to the “One Big Beautiful Bill.” The effective tax rate jumped to 87% (12% a year ago). Without the effect, profit would have been $18.64 billion.

Adjusted diluted earnings per share were $7.25, above the expected $6.69. The company indicated that, excluding the one-time tax expense, the effective tax rate would have been 14%, indicating a significant decrease in recurring tax burden.

Costs and expenses totaled US$30.71 billion (+32%), exceeding revenue growth. Operating profit reached US$20.54 billion (+18%), with a margin of 40.1%, lower than the 42.7% a year earlier and the lowest since Q2 2024 (38%).

Advertising remained dominant: $50.08 billion, about 98% of revenue. Impressions increased 14% and the average price per ad rose 10% year-over-year, sustaining the acceleration at the top of the line.

The daily user base for the family of apps reached 3.54 billion people in September (+8%). The company emphasized that improvements in AI are increasing the relevance of ads and content, although a potential slowdown in advertising remains a risk to the long-term thesis.

For Q4 2025, Meta projects revenue between US$56 billion and US$59 billion, with exchange rates contributing approximately 1 percentage point. Total expenses for 2025 are expected to be between US$116 billion and US$118 billion, above the previous low.

Capital expenditure (capex) for 2025 has been raised to $70–72 billion (previously $66–72 billion). Management anticipates that dollar growth in capex will be “significantly higher” in 2026, reflecting demand for both proprietary AI infrastructure and third-party cloud solutions.

CFO Susan Li said that computing needs have grown considerably compared to the previous quarter and will require aggressive investments. By 2026, total expenses are expected to grow at a “significantly higher” rate, with cloud and depreciation leading the way; compensation will be the second main driver.

The strategy includes “aggressively increasing capacity” to have leading computing power, according to Mark Zuckerberg. Meta has entered into a $27 billion joint venture with Blue Owl for a large data center in Richland Parish, Louisiana.

Reality Labs reported revenue of $470 million and an operating loss of $4.43 billion in Q3. The company expects lower revenue from the unit in Q4 due to a high base for the Quest 3S and anticipation of purchases by retailers in Q3, targeting the holiday season.

The workforce numbered 78,450 as of September 30 (+8% year-over-year). Meta cut approximately 600 positions in the Meta Superintelligence Labs for efficiency gains, but continues to hire AI talent with generous compensation packages.

The capital return program included $3.16 billion in repurchases (one-third of Q2) and $1.33 billion in dividends. At a price of $751.67, the dividend yield was 0.28%, below the implied yield of the S&P 500 (1.13%).

Cash and marketable securities totaled $44.45 billion. Operating cash flow was $30.0 billion and free cash flow reached $10.63 billion, even after heavy capex and finance lease payments.

In the balance sheet, total assets reached US$303.84 billion, with net property and equipment of US$160.27 billion. Long-term debt remained stable at US$28.83 billion, indicating financing capacity for data center expansion.

Shares fell about 8.5% in after-hours trading in NY, after closing at US$751.67 and accumulating +28% in 2025.

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