Oil prices edged higher on Monday after OPEC+ announced it would delay production hikes scheduled for the first quarter of next year, a move that helped calm fears of oversupply. However, lackluster manufacturing data from major Asian economies limited the rally.
As of 07:22 GMT, Brent crude futures were up 28 cents, or 0.43%, at $65.05 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 25 cents, or 0.41%, to $61.23.
OPEC and its allies confirmed on Sunday that they will proceed with a 137,000-barrel-per-day increase in December — matching the output increments for October and November.
“Beyond December, due to seasonality, the eight countries also decided to pause the production increments in January, February, and March 2026,” the group said in a statement.
Warren Patterson, Head of Commodities Research at ING, said the move suggests OPEC+ is acknowledging “the large surplus that the market faces, particularly through early next year.” He added, “Obviously, still plenty of uncertainty over the scale of the surplus, which will be dependent on how disruptive U.S. sanctions will be to Russian oil flows.”
Helima Croft, Head of Commodities Strategy at RBC Capital, said Russia remains “a key supply wild card” amid the latest U.S. sanctions targeting major producers Rosneft and Lukoil, as well as continued strikes on the country’s energy infrastructure. “There is ample ground for a cautious approach given the uncertainty over the Q1 supply picture and the anticipated demand softness,” she noted.
Over the weekend, a Ukrainian drone strike hit the Tuapse oil terminal—one of Russia’s primary Black Sea export facilities—igniting a fire and damaging at least one vessel.
Despite Monday’s uptick, both Brent and WTI posted losses of more than 2% in October, their third straight monthly decline, and touched a five-month low on October 20 as concerns about oversupply and weaker global growth weighed on sentiment.
A Reuters poll showed analysts largely maintaining their oil price forecasts, noting that increasing OPEC+ output and subdued demand are counterbalancing geopolitical risks to supply. Estimates for the market surplus varied widely, from 190,000 to 3 million barrels per day.
Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration released Friday showed U.S. crude production rising by 86,000 barrels per day in August, reaching a record 13.8 million barrels per day.
Meanwhile, Asian manufacturing hubs continued to struggle in October, with surveys showing weaker factory activity as U.S. tariffs and cooling global demand hit exports across the region — the world’s largest oil-consuming market.
On Friday, President Donald Trump denied considering strikes inside OPEC member Venezuela, amid growing speculation that Washington could broaden anti–drug trafficking operations there.