Retail investors are expected to keep adding money to equities well into early 2026, according to JPMorgan analysts, who pointed to strong seasonal trends and ongoing momentum in exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows as key drivers.
Analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote that “from a seasonality point of view, the strong momentum in the retail impulse into equities seen over the previous two months is likely to be sustained into early 2026.”
The bank observed that equity ETFs drew roughly $160 billion of inflows in both September and October, “the strongest pace of equity ETF buying since November and December 2024 after the U.S. election.”
Despite tighter liquidity conditions within the U.S. banking system, JPMorgan noted that “broader liquidity for non-bank sectors continues to expand strongly.”
The report added that “there have been outflows from mutual funds and leveraged equity ETFs offsetting the above inflows into unlevered equity ETFs,” but said the overall picture still reflects “the strongest retail buying since November and December 2024.”
Panigirtzoglou clarified that recent selling in leveraged ETFs “should not be viewed as a sign of cautiousness but rather an attempt by investors to prevent their leveraged equity ETF holdings from rising too much” amid the market’s sustained rally since May.
According to JPMorgan’s analysis of fund flow seasonality over the past decade, equity inflows “tend to be more elevated around year-end, i.e. more elevated for December as well as for the first quarter of a year.”
The firm concluded that this trend suggests “the strong momentum in the retail impulse into equities… is likely to be sustained into early 2026.”