Global demand for oil and gas is expected to keep growing until 2050, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), signaling a dramatic reversal from earlier forecasts that anticipated a swift global shift toward renewable energy. The agency’s latest assessment warns that the world is unlikely to meet its climate targets under existing policy frameworks.
The IEA, a leading energy policy advisor to industrialized nations, has faced shifting expectations from U.S. administrations. Under President Donald Trump, the agency came under pressure to focus more on fossil fuel expansion, while the Biden administration encouraged a cleaner energy agenda. At that time, the IEA argued that “global oil demand would peak this decade” and declared that “no more investment in oil and gas was needed if the world wanted to achieve its climate target.”
Trump’s Energy Secretary Chris Wright dismissed the agency’s earlier outlooks as “nonsensical.” The IEA, which receives funding from member countries — with the U.S. as its largest financial supporter — produces data and analyses that influence energy and climate policies across both the public and private sectors.
Current Policies Scenario Projects Steady Oil Demand Growth
In its World Energy Outlook 2025, the IEA said that under its “current policies scenario,” global oil demand will rise to 113 million barrels per day by 2050, about 13% higher than in 2024. It also forecasts that global energy demand will grow by 90 exajoules by 2035, marking a 15% increase compared to today.
This scenario reflects policies that are already in place — not climate commitments or pledges — and focuses on the trajectory of the existing energy system. The IEA last relied on this approach in 2019, before pivoting toward scenarios based on achieving net zero emissions by mid-century. This year, the agency returned to the older framework, saying that too few countries had submitted updated climate plans for 2031–2035 to support meaningful modeling.
Under the stated policies scenario, which factors in announced but not yet implemented initiatives, the IEA projects that oil demand will peak around 2030 before plateauing. The agency emphasized that these scenarios are exploratory rather than predictive, designed to illustrate “a range of possible outcomes under various assumptions.”
LNG Investments Surge Amid Rising Global Demand
The report highlights a surge in liquefied natural gas (LNG) investments in 2025, with final approvals for major new export projects accelerating worldwide. The IEA expects roughly 300 billion cubic meters of new annual LNG capacity to come online by 2030 — a 50% increase in global supply.
If current policies persist, global LNG demand could grow from 560 bcm in 2024 to 880 bcm by 2035, and reach 1,020 bcm in 2050, supported by expanding electricity needs tied to data centers and artificial intelligence infrastructure.
The IEA also projects that global data center investments could hit $580 billion in 2025, exceeding the $540 billion spent annually on oil production — a sign of how digital technologies are reshaping global energy consumption.
Global Warming Set to Exceed 1.5°C
The report’s net zero scenario outlines a pathway to eliminate carbon emissions by 2050, but the IEA acknowledges that the world is not on track to achieve this goal.
More than 190 nations signed the 2015 Paris Agreement, pledging to limit global warming to 1.5°C (2.7°F). Yet, the IEA warns that all of its modeled scenarios show the planet surpassing that threshold, only cooling again in the net zero case if large-scale carbon removal technologies are deployed successfully.
The findings paint a sobering picture: despite record renewable energy investments and growing policy commitments, fossil fuels are still poised to play a dominant role in meeting global energy demand — potentially locking in decades of elevated emissions and rising temperatures.