Futures tied to the major U.S. equity benchmarks pushed higher on Monday as investors prepared for a packed week marked by the return of official U.S. economic data releases and a high-profile earnings update from tech heavyweight Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA). September’s delayed U.S. employment report is finally expected after the prolonged government shutdown, while Nvidia’s results may heavily influence sentiment around the ongoing AI boom. Meanwhile, Japan posted its first economic contraction in six quarters, and both gold and oil prices continued to soften.
Futures advance
U.S. equity futures edged upward to start the week, supported by anticipation of fresh economic indicators and upcoming results from artificial-intelligence bellwether Nvidia.
By 02:51 ET, Dow futures were up 88 points or 0.2%, S&P 500 futures gained 38 points or 0.6%, and Nasdaq 100 futures jumped 223 points or 0.9%.
Mood improved further after signals that U.S. President Donald Trump may be relaxing his approach to broad tariff measures. After Friday’s market close, the White House revealed plans to scale back duties on a range of food items, with Trump noting affordability concerns. Prices for certain goods, including beef, fruit, and coffee, were “a little bit high,” Trump said.
Additionally, Washington and Switzerland struck a deal lowering U.S. tariffs on Swiss exports to 15% from 39% in exchange for a commitment of $200 billion in U.S. investment by 2028.
The U.S. indexes ended last week mixed, though the Nasdaq Composite stood out as tech stocks bounced from a three-week low, helping ease fears that AI-driven valuations had become overstretched.
U.S. data pipeline restarting
Attention now shifts back to the economic calendar, which has been largely empty for weeks during the record-breaking government shutdown.
With the shutdown resolved, delayed U.S. data—including key inflation and labor reports—can now be released. One of the most anticipated figures will be September’s jobs report, slated for Thursday, though White House comments hint that October’s data may be incomplete.
These readings are expected to play an important role in shaping the Federal Reserve’s final policy decision of the year in December.
The Fed cut interest rates at its last two meetings, but concerns over the lack of timely data have led many traders to expect policymakers to hold rates steady next month.
Nvidia earnings in focus
Nvidia will headline this week’s earnings slate, with results due after Wednesday’s market close. The chipmaker—whose staggering rise has come to symbolize the AI boom—could wield more influence over market mood than even the upcoming labor figures.
The company’s valuation has skyrocketed roughly 1,000% since the late-2022 debut of OpenAI’s ChatGPT, making Nvidia the first firm to surpass a $5 trillion market cap. Its results now serve as a barometer for broader AI enthusiasm.
Given elevated tech valuations and an uptick in circular investment arrangements centered around Nvidia’s most advanced chips, some analysts worry that the sector may be approaching bubble territory.
Beyond Nvidia, major retailers Home Depot (NYSE:HD), Target (NYSE:TGT), and Walmart (NYSE:WMT) will also release earnings this week, potentially offering clues about holiday-season demand.
Japan’s economy contracts
Japan’s GDP shrank in Q3 2025, according to figures released Monday, with export-heavy industries—especially autos—hit by higher U.S. tariffs.
GDP fell 1.8% year-on-year in the September quarter, beating expectations for a 2.5% drop but reversing the prior quarter’s 2.3% growth (revised higher).
This marked Japan’s first contraction in six quarters, though economists suggested the downturn may be less severe than initially feared.
Japanese businesses have been contending with stubborn inflation, weak household spending, and sharply higher U.S. trade duties. Although Tokyo and Washington recently agreed on a trade arrangement, elevated tariff burdens remain a drag—particularly for automakers.
Markets are now watching new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s plans for stimulus and fiscal support.
Gold and oil prices decline
Gold extended its slide as traders further dialed back expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month. A firmer dollar and risk-off sentiment stemming from postponed rate-cut bets added to the downward pressure.
Oil also eased after Russia’s Novorossiysk port resumed crude loadings, alleviating immediate fears of supply constraints. The rebound followed a Friday spike of more than 2% in both Brent and WTI prices, after Ukrainian attacks temporarily halted shipments from Novorossiysk and a nearby CPC terminal. By Sunday, tanker-tracking data indicated loadings had restarted.