U.S. equity futures crept upward on Monday, with investors fixated on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision and the latest developments in U.S.–Ukraine talks over a possible peace framework with Russia. Oil prices eased, while earnings from Agilent (NYSE:A) and reports of Lenovo stockpiling memory chips underscored ongoing tensions in AI-driven supply chains.
Futures Tick Up
U.S. index futures pointed modestly higher early Monday as traders reassessed the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month.
By 02:48 ET, Dow futures were up 153 points (0.3%), S&P 500 futures climbed 41 points (0.6%) and Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 213 points (0.9%).
Expectations for another cut at the Fed’s December 9–10 meeting have grown, although policymakers remain divided. Some officials argue that lower borrowing costs are necessary to support a cooling labor market, while others warn the recent federal shutdown leaves the Fed with “outdated, stale” economic data and caution against premature easing.
Still, markets price in more than a 70% chance of a 25 bps cut, per CME’s FedWatch Tool. The Fed previously delivered identical reductions in September and October.
Rate-cut optimism lifted Wall Street on Friday, though all three major indices still closed the week lower amid concerns over tech-sector valuations and whether AI infrastructure spending can be sustained.
Oil Slips as Peace Talks Advance
Crude prices drifted lower as traders balanced Fed expectations with the potential for progress in U.S.-brokered Russia–Ukraine negotiations.
By 03:09 ET, Brent futures were down 0.4% at $61.70 a barrel, while WTI held near $57.81.
Talks between Washington and Kyiv were set to continue, with both sides agreeing Sunday to amend the initial peace terms proposed by President Donald Trump, which critics argued favored Russia. Trump earlier pushed for an agreement before Thanksgiving, though Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the deadline was not rigid.
Analysts at ING noted: “Developments related to a potential peace agreement are important for the oil market, particularly amid significant uncertainty about the impact of recently imposed sanctions on Russia’s [oil majors] Rosneft and Lukoil.”
They added: “Clearly, a peace deal increases the likelihood that sanctions will be lifted, or at least not enforced strictly.”
Gold Softens
Gold prices edged lower as demand for risk assets improved on renewed confidence in a December Fed cut. The prospect of a Russia–Ukraine ceasefire also weighed on safe-haven flows.
Even so, concerns about global fiscal conditions and diplomatic tensions between China and Japan offered some support, keeping the metal above $4,000 an ounce.
By 03:48 ET, spot gold was steady at $4,064.70/oz, while December futures slipped 0.4% to $4,097.80/oz.
Agilent Set to Report
The earnings calendar is quieter this week, but Agilent Technologies will headline Monday’s releases. Investors will watch whether the life-sciences group is overcoming sluggish ordering trends seen over the past two years, despite generally firm demand for drug-development tools.
In August, Agilent raised its FY revenue guidance to $6.91–$6.93 billion (from $6.73–$6.81 billion) and forecast full-year EPS of $5.56–$5.59.
For its fiscal Q4, consensus points to adjusted EPS of $1.59 on $1.83 billion in revenue.
Lenovo Stockpiles Memory Amid AI-Driven Squeeze
Lenovo Group (USOTC:LNVGY), the world’s biggest PC maker, is accumulating memory-chip inventories roughly 50% above typical levels, CFO Winston Cheng told Bloomberg TV. AI data-center demand has tightened supply and pushed prices sharply higher.
The shortages could drive up consumer-electronics prices broadly, potentially weighing on Lenovo’s demand outlook. Still, Cheng said the company aims not to pass higher costs on to buyers and sees an opportunity to benefit from its expanded inventory position.
Lenovo last week reported a slight decline in September-quarter profit as increased AI-related investment offset strong device and PC sales.