Crude oil is unlikely to regain significant momentum next year, according to Bank of America Global Research, which expects persistent market pressures to keep prices subdued throughout 2026.
Brent, the global benchmark, has already fallen nearly 20% in 2025, averaging around $69 a barrel as the combined impact of the U.S. trade conflict and the ongoing OPEC+ price war weighed heavily on the market.
Analysts at Bank of America noted in a November 23 report that “The high end of the range was $82/bbl first on the back of U.S. sanctions on Russia in January and then as the U.S. struck Iran in June. The low end of the range was $60/bbl in May right before US and China agreed to de-escalate trade measures.”
Looking ahead, the bank projects global oil demand to increase by roughly 1 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2026. However, with non-OPEC+ producers expected to add about 0.8 million b/d of supply and OPEC+ likely to maintain its aggressive market-share strategy, BofA forecasts an impending surplus of around 2 million b/d. Under these conditions, the bank expects Brent to average $60/bbl and WTI to average $57/bbl next year.
As of 04:40 ET (09:40 GMT), January Brent futures were down 0.8% at $61.47, while WTI futures slipped 0.4% to $57.60.
Nonetheless, BofA warned that supply forecasts are vulnerable to geopolitical surprises. Output from Venezuela and Iran remains well below early-2021 levels—by about 2.2 million b/d—and Russian production could also underperform.
With global GDP projected to grow 3.3% in 2026, the bank expects oil consumption to remain relatively resilient.
BofA added that several dynamics could prevent Brent from sliding far below the $50 line, even in a bearish scenario. “First, it is not in OPEC+’s self-interest to drive prices much lower due to rising borrowing requirements. Second, US shale oil production is poised to stagnate at $60/bbl Brent and could contract materially if prices drop another $10/bbl. Three, there is still ample storage capacity and China should continue to build strategic crude inventories through 2026,” the note stated.
The bank flagged weaker economic growth and the continuation of the OPEC+ price war as the biggest downside risks for crude next year. Meanwhile, geopolitical flashpoints could support prices—although a breakthrough in Ukraine peace efforts may push energy markets lower across the board.