U.S. equity futures drifted lower early Monday as December trading begins, with investors weighing signs of cooling risk appetite tied to concerns in the artificial intelligence sector. Even so, the S&P 500 remains up about 16% year-to-date, and December has historically been a seasonally strong month for the benchmark index. Online Black Friday spending jumped sharply despite worries over fading U.S. consumer sentiment, while oil prices nudged higher after OPEC+ reaffirmed plans to keep production steady through the first quarter of 2026.
U.S. futures dip
Futures pointed modestly lower on Monday as investors monitored profit trends in the AI industry and assessed the odds of a potential U.S. rate cut later this month.
By 03:16 ET, Dow futures were down 234 points (0.5%), S&P 500 futures slid 41 points (0.6%), and Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 189 points (0.7%).
Wall Street finished Friday’s shortened session—held on lower volume due to Thanksgiving—solidly higher. For the week, all three major indexes rose more than 3%. Both the S&P 500 and the Dow ended November in positive territory, but the Nasdaq Composite slipped 1.51%, reflecting renewed caution toward lofty tech valuations and heavy, often debt-funded, AI-related spending.
Among individual movers, CME Group shares ticked higher after the company grabbed headlines when a technical outage briefly halted futures trading across multiple asset classes before Friday’s holiday-shortened open.
Black Friday spending jumps
U.S. consumer confidence has sunk to a seven-month low as households face a cooling labor market and ongoing economic uncertainty. Yet shoppers still flocked online for Black Friday deals, leaning on AI-powered tools to compare prices and surface discounts.
Adobe Analytics reported that Americans spent a record $11.8 billion online on Black Friday, up 9.1% from a year earlier. The firm also said AI-driven retail traffic surged more than 800%. Last year, tools such as Amazon’s Rufus and Walmart’s Sparky were not yet available.
Mastercard SpendingPulse data showed that overall e-commerce purchases climbed 10.4%.
Oil rises as OPEC+ maintains output strategy
Crude prices advanced more than 1% on Monday after OPEC+ reiterated its plan to keep production unchanged through the first quarter of next year, while geopolitical risks added further support.
At 20:52 ET (01:52 GMT), February Brent futures were up 1.2% at $63.13 per barrel, and WTI increased 1.2% to $59.27.
OPEC+ confirmed it will maintain voluntary cuts of about 3.24 million barrels per day into early 2026, signalling caution amid inconsistent demand patterns and concerns about oversupply.
Oil received an additional lift following weekend attacks on Russian energy assets that disrupted exports. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium halted loadings at the Novorossiysk terminal after a drone strike significantly damaged a mooring point.
BOJ’s Ueda hints at rate-hike debate
The yen strengthened after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said policymakers would weigh the “pros and cons” of a rate increase at the central bank’s December 18–19 meeting.
ING analysts noted he also suggested that new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi—long viewed as favoring ultra-loose policy—may not oppose higher rates.
“This second factor had been crucial for markets, whose basic understanding was that Takaichi was a dovish-leaning influence,” they wrote.
Markets took Ueda’s tone as hawkish, boosting expectations for what could be the BOJ’s first rate hike since exiting negative rates earlier this year. Rising Japanese government bond yields reinforced the yen’s move as traders priced in higher odds of policy tightening.
Asia’s factory data in spotlight
Traders also digested a round of manufacturing reports from Asia. China’s factory sector weakened further, with both official and private PMIs pointing to an eighth straight month of contraction amid weak domestic demand and soft overseas orders pressured by U.S. tariffs—fueling concerns that China’s recovery remains uneven despite policy support.
Japan’s manufacturing sector contracted for a fifth month in November, though at the slowest pace since August, while South Korea’s PMI remained in contraction as demand cooled and export momentum faded.