Copper prices are likely to stay well supported next year, driven by tightening supply conditions and signs that U.S. import demand is picking back up, Morgan Stanley said in a recent research note.
The bank highlights that accelerating demand from energy storage systems (ESS) and ongoing capacity growth in data centers should help counterbalance softness across several Chinese end-use sectors, which Morgan Stanley continues to watch closely for indications of price sensitivity.
With these forces at play, the firm expects the global copper deficit to widen in 2026. Its current models show a shortfall of roughly 590,000 tons.
For pricing, Morgan Stanley is holding to its 2026 base-case forecast of $10,650 per ton, while a more optimistic scenario places prices at $12,780 per ton. Given today’s conditions, the bank notes that risks appear skewed to the upside. Copper is currently trading near $11,620.50.
Still, the outlook is not without risks. Morgan Stanley points to one key potential downside: if the U.S. were to “unequivocally rule out” the possibility of refined copper tariffs, it could trigger the release of stockpiled metal that has been accumulated in anticipation of such measures, adding pressure to prices.