Markets face a packed agenda in the days ahead, with investors tracking a wave of delayed U.S. economic releases that should shed light on employment and inflation trends in the world’s largest economy. Elsewhere, Micron’s (NASDAQ:MU) earnings are expected to provide one of the final readouts on the artificial intelligence trade in 2025. Comments from Federal Reserve officials will also be closely examined, while several major central banks around the world are set to deliver their latest policy decisions.
1. Catch-up U.S. data releases
Fresh insight into the health of the U.S. economy is expected this week as a backlog of indicators delayed by a prolonged federal government shutdown is finally published.
On Tuesday, markets will receive the November employment report. Economists surveyed by Reuters forecast a modest increase of around 35,000 jobs. The release will also incorporate October nonfarm payrolls data, which was never reported due to the shutdown-related suspension of data collection.
An updated unemployment rate will be released as well, after the government’s 43-day shutdown prevented the October figure from being compiled.
“Any softer-than-expected data here could bring forward pricing of the next Fed rate cut,” ING analysts said in a note.
U.S. consumer price inflation data for November is also scheduled for release, offering another key signal on price pressures.
For the Federal Reserve, labor market conditions have taken precedence over still-elevated inflation. While several indicators suggest hiring momentum is cooling, the absence of comprehensive official data in recent months has forced policymakers and investors to rely on alternative measures to gauge employment trends.
2. Fed officials in the spotlight
A number of Federal Reserve policymakers are due to speak this week, shortly after a closely divided Fed voted to cut interest rates by 25 basis points.
Although the cut itself was widely expected, uncertainty remains over the direction of rates in the months ahead. Sticky inflation, gaps in economic data and an upcoming leadership transition at the Fed have all complicated forecasts for borrowing costs in 2026 and beyond. Last Wednesday, the central bank indicated it may pause further cuts until there is greater clarity on the economic outlook.
Remarks from New York Fed President John Williams on Monday could offer insight into how some policymakers view the path ahead. Williams played a key role in “dovishly shifting market expectations” ahead of the most recent cut, ING noted.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller — seen by some as a potential successor to Chair Jerome Powell — is also scheduled to speak on Wednesday.
3. Micron earnings in focus
Analysts at Vital Knowledge cautioned that while upcoming U.S. data is important, “we think markets will discount it somewhat given how distorted the figures are right now.”
They pointed out that Powell himself highlighted last week “how far off he feels the current jobs figures are.”
Against that backdrop, Vital Knowledge suggested that Micron’s earnings report could emerge as the most significant market catalyst of the week.
Sentiment toward AI-linked stocks was shaken last week after disappointing updates from Oracle and Broadcom raised concerns about the sustainability of heavy investment in the technology.
However, expectations for Micron remain “extremely bullish,” with investors anticipating a multi-year upcycle driven by demand for high-bandwidth memory chips used in advanced AI processors, according to the analysts.
Micron shares have surged more than 176% so far this year, largely reflecting the company’s role as a key supplier of HBM components for Nvidia’s AI-focused chips.
4. ECB expected to stand pat
Attention will also turn to policy decisions from major global central banks.
The European Central Bank is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged following its meeting on Thursday. However, recent speculation has grown around the possibility of a rate hike in 2026.
ECB officials have repeatedly said policy is in a “good place,” effectively ruling out further cuts for now. The eurozone economy expanded 0.3% in the third quarter, outperforming ECB forecasts, while inflation has proven more persistent than many expected.
As a result, some analysts are questioning whether inflation projections for 2026 and 2027 may need to be revised higher.
5. BoE and BOJ decisions ahead
The Bank of England is expected to deliver its final rate cut of the year on Thursday, as policymakers weigh signs that inflationary pressures are easing, according to Deutsche Bank.
The bank’s strategists said the decision could be narrowly split, with a 5–4 vote on the Monetary Policy Committee and Governor Andrew Bailey likely casting the deciding vote.
The outlook comes amid reports of diverging views within the BoE over whether further easing could reignite inflation, which has slowed recently but remains elevated. UK inflation eased to 3.6% in October from 3.8% the previous month, in line with BoE expectations, with additional inflation data due this week.
Meanwhile, analysts at BofA Securities expect the Bank of Japan to unanimously support a rate hike at its December 18–19 meeting. A quarter-point increase to 0.75% would take borrowing costs to their highest level in around 30 years. However, with markets already assigning roughly a 90% probability to such a move, the analysts — including Takayasu Kudo and Shusuke Yamada — said they “doubt this will come as a surprise.”