A bold U.S. operation that resulted in the capture of Venezuela’s leader dominates attention at the start of the first full trading week of 2026. Markets are assessing the broader consequences of Washington’s move, which would see the United States temporarily overseeing the oil-rich Latin American nation. At the same time, investors are bracing for a fresh run of labor-market data, as the economic calendar returns to a more normal rhythm following an extended U.S. government shutdown.
Elsewhere, Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang is due to outline his views on artificial intelligence in the year ahead, while reports suggest the board of Warner Bros Discovery (NASDAQ:WBD) is preparing to turn down a revised takeover approach from Paramount (NASDAQ:PARA) and Skydance.
1. Oil slides after U.S. captures Venezuela’s Maduro
Oil prices weakened on Monday after a dramatic U.S. operation that led to the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro raised expectations that additional supply could eventually reach the market.
By 03:08 ET, Brent crude futures for March were down 0.8% at $60.27 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.9% to $56.82.
Maduro was detained during a weekend strike and is expected to face drug-trafficking charges in New York. U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington would run Venezuela until a new leader is elected, adding that major U.S. oil companies would be permitted to enter the country.
Shares of oil majors Chevron (NYSE:CVX), ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) and ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) all jumped in extended-hours trading.
Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves, but production has struggled for years due to aging infrastructure and tough U.S. sanctions.
In a note, Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING, said comments from Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodriguez calling for cooperation with the U.S. suggest a “smooth transition” could lie ahead. That, he argued, would increase the likelihood of Washington lifting restrictions on sanctioned oil tankers, putting short-term downward pressure on prices.
By contrast, a “messier transition” could threaten around 900,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan output, Patterson said, although any upside impact would likely be capped in a “well-supplied” global market.
2. U.S. employment data in focus
Top of the economic agenda this week is the release of U.S. jobs figures for December.
Economists expect payrolls to have risen by about 57,000 in the final month of 2025, down from 64,000 in November. In October, sharp cuts to government-related spending triggered the steepest fall in nonfarm payrolls in nearly five years.
The monthly jobs data cycle is set to normalize after a 43-day government shutdown delayed several key releases. The previous report notably omitted an unemployment rate for October—the first such gap since records began in 1948.
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates at each of its final three meetings in 2025, prioritizing concerns over a cooling labor market above persistent inflation pressures. While expectations of lower rates have supported equities, policymakers remain split over the path of borrowing costs in 2026.
3. ISM manufacturing and services surveys ahead
Investors will also watch closely for updates on U.S. business activity through the latest Institute for Supply Management surveys.
The ISM manufacturing PMI for December, due on Monday, is forecast at 48.3—slightly above November’s 48.2 but still signaling contraction below the 50 mark. The prices-paid component, a gauge of inflation pressures, is expected to edge higher.
The ISM services PMI, scheduled for Wednesday, is seen slipping modestly but remaining in expansion territory. The services sector is crucial to the U.S. economy, accounting for more than two-thirds of total activity.
4. Nvidia’s Huang takes the stage
Also on Monday, Nvidia’s Jensen Huang is set to deliver a keynote address ahead of the closely watched CES technology show in Las Vegas.
Nvidia has emerged as a central beneficiary of the surge in enthusiasm around artificial intelligence, with its chips forming the backbone of data centers that power advanced AI models. Any signals from Huang on the future of Nvidia’s processors—or the broader AI landscape—are likely to attract close attention.
Lisa Su, chief executive of rival Advanced Micro Devices, is also scheduled to speak at CES.
5. Warner Bros and Paramount saga set for another turn
The protracted battle over the future of Warner Bros Discovery could see another decisive moment this week.
Media reports suggest the company’s board is leaning toward rejecting a sweetened takeover proposal from Paramount Skydance, despite the $108.4 billion hostile bid being backed by a personal guarantee from billionaire Larry Ellison.
According to people familiar with the matter, a final decision has not yet been made but could come in the coming days. Paramount has argued that a merger with Warner—creating a media powerhouse larger even than Disney—would face fewer regulatory hurdles.
If Paramount’s offer is ultimately rebuffed, Warner would remain free to pursue a rival $82.7 billion cash-and-stock proposal from streaming giant Netflix.