Bernstein has published an updated outlook for copper prices in 2026, forecasting average prices of around $11,500 per tonne in the first quarter before easing back to roughly $10,000 per tonne in the second half of the year as the current rally loses momentum.
Copper has recently climbed to record highs above $13,000 per tonne, a move Bernstein attributes to a mix of supply disruptions — including geotechnical issues — and man-made influences such as arbitrage activity and labour strikes. As of Wednesday morning, the metal was trading at approximately $13,238 per tonne.
The research firm said the strength in prices reflects the structural support provided by global electrification trends, which continue to underpin long-term demand for copper. In the near term, however, speculative positioning has played a significant role in keeping prices elevated.
Looking further into 2026, Bernstein expects a period of price normalisation as demand growth slows and substitution becomes more prevalent. The analysts also highlighted the risk that softer electric vehicle sales could weigh on market sentiment later in the year.
Bernstein cautioned that the market remains sensitive to macroeconomic developments, warning that negative news — particularly around artificial intelligence or the electric vehicle sector — could trigger rapid unwinding of speculative positions and lead to sharp price corrections.