US equity futures were largely unchanged as investors positioned cautiously ahead of key monthly employment data and a potential Supreme Court ruling on the White House’s far-reaching import tariffs. Attention is also on Washington, where President Donald Trump is expected to meet oil industry leaders amid renewed focus on Venezuela’s energy assets, while mining heavyweights Glencore (LSE:GLEN) and Rio Tinto (LSE:RIO) revisit merger discussions.
US futures steady
Futures tied to the major US stock indices hovered around flat levels on Friday as markets awaited the nonfarm payrolls report.
At 02:54 ET, futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 were all little changed.
Wall Street closed mixed on Thursday. The S&P 500 ended broadly flat, the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.44%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.55%.
Defence stocks rallied strongly after President Trump called for a sharp rise in US military spending to $1.5 trillion by 2027, up from the $901 billion approved by Congress for this year.
Gains were partially offset by weakness in technology stocks, reflecting lingering concerns over whether heavy investment in artificial intelligence will ultimately deliver adequate returns. The S&P 500 technology index dropped 1.5%, weighed down by large-cap names including Microsoft and Nvidia.
Nonfarm payrolls in focus
Market focus is now firmly on the December US nonfarm payrolls report, which is expected to provide insight into labour market conditions at the close of the fourth quarter.
Economists forecast that the US economy added around 66,000 jobs in the final month of 2026, slightly higher than the 64,000 recorded in November. The unemployment rate is expected to edge lower to 4.5% from 4.6%.
“The unemployment rate may be monitored even more than payrolls, mirroring the Fed[eral Reserve]’s focus on joblessness,” analysts at ING said in a note.
Labour market indicators are being closely watched for clues on the future path of Federal Reserve interest rates. The central bank cut rates several times last year to support a cooling jobs market, even as inflation pressures proved stubborn.
ING added that other labour data released this week have “sent conflicting U.S. macro signals.” Private payrolls data were described as “acceptable,” but job openings disappointed and overall job cuts in 2025 were the highest since 2020.
Tariff ruling awaited from Supreme Court
Investors are also watching for a potential ruling from the US Supreme Court on the legality of President Trump’s global tariff regime, which could be delivered as early as Friday, though no decision is guaranteed.
The case centres on Trump’s use of emergency economic powers under a 1977 law to impose the tariffs. During hearings in November, justices from both conservative and liberal wings expressed doubts about the administration’s legal justification.
According to ING, recent comments from Trump suggest the White House is preparing for an adverse ruling. Betting platform Polymarket currently assigns only a one-in-four probability that the court will side with the president.
If the tariffs are overturned, analysts warn this could inject fresh uncertainty into US trade policy. A key question is whether a ruling against the administration would require the government to refund an estimated $150 billion in duties already paid by importers.
Some observers believe the White House could respond to an unfavourable decision by seeking alternative legal routes to reimpose the tariffs.
Trump to meet oil executives
In Washington, President Trump said he plans to meet executives from major oil companies on Friday to discuss the future of Venezuela’s vast oil reserves.
In an interview with Fox News, Trump said the “top 14 companies are coming” to the White House and would be tasked with “rebuild[ing]” Venezuela’s degraded oil infrastructure.
It remains unclear which companies will attend. Reuters, citing sources familiar with the matter, reported that the administration has also invited the heads of commodity trading firms Vitol and Trafigura.
Trump has repeatedly signalled his intention to assert control over Venezuelan oil resources following a US military operation last weekend that led to the capture of the country’s long-time leader, Nicolas Maduro.
Earlier this week, Trump said Caracas had agreed to ship up to 50 million barrels of oil to the US. However, the Financial Times reported that oil companies are seeking “serious guarantees” before committing significant investment to the country.
Glencore and Rio Tinto revive merger talks
Shares in Rio Tinto slipped in London after the miner said it has resumed merger discussions with Glencore.
Glencore shares surged 6.7% in London trading by 03:37 ET, after news of the revived talks was first reported by the Financial Times.
Glencore later confirmed it is in “preliminary discussions with Rio Tinto” over a potential combination involving some or all of their operations, including the possibility of an all-share merger.
“This deal could be a win-win for both parties, providing Rio with the copper it needs and diluting iron ore exposure while unlocking value for Glencore holders,” RBC Capital Markets analysts led by Ben Davis said in a note.