Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) came under fresh selling pressure on Friday, with shares down about 1.4% in premarket trading after Mizuho downgraded the stock to Neutral, pointing to growing challenges in the global handset market and the loss of modem business at Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL).
In a note, analyst Vijay Rakesh said Mizuho is “downgrading QCOM to Neutral with handset headwinds as it loses AAPL share in F26/27E.”
The downgrade reflects expectations for a weaker environment for smartphones overall. Mizuho highlighted “continued challenges in PC/Handset (RF) with 1) memory px demand destruction, 2) China competition/subsidy headwind, and 3) iPhone units down y/y,” signalling pressure across multiple end markets.
According to the firm, Qualcomm’s core operations are being affected by China’s push to source more components domestically, alongside softer global demand for devices. Rakesh warned that “QCOM could see headwinds with handsets accounting for >70% QCT revenue as we estimate global handsets units could decline 0-2% y/y.”
Looking specifically at Apple, the analyst estimates a potential revenue impact of $2 billion to $3 billion for Qualcomm, based on a forecast that iPhone unit sales will fall 7% year on year in 2026.
While Mizuho acknowledged that “strong double-digit growth rates for QCOM’s non-handset businesses in Auto and IoT is a positive,” it cautioned that the “near-term will not fully offset the >70% handset exposed QCT and iPhone content loss headwinds,” keeping the near-term outlook constrained.